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Local Traits and Securitized Commercial Mortgage Default

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  • Xudong An
  • Yongheng Deng
  • Joseph Nichols
  • Anthony Sanders

Abstract

We expand on the standard commercial mortgage default model and create a new model by looking beyond the usual factors of option value, insolvency, property type, region, originator type, state foreclosure laws and macroeconomic measures. The new model incorporates measures of local economic conditions, specifically MSA-level commercial property market conditions, county level unemployment, and local home price appreciation. We estimate our new model using a dataset containing the performance histories of over 30,000 CMBS loans that were originated between 1998 and 2012. We find that those local trait variables affect the default rate of CMBS loans significantly and provide improved explanatory power over the standard model. We further explore the impact of local home price measures by comparing the explanatory power of lagged and contemporaneous home price indexes, comparing the power of home price indexes at the state, county, and zip-code level, examining the interaction of home price indexes with commercial property type, looking at the impact of home price indexes over time, and at the impact of introducing local commercial land price indexes. We find that local residential house price-related measures provide a high quality and high frequency signal of local market conditions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Joseph Nichols & Anthony Sanders, 2013. "Local Traits and Securitized Commercial Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 787-813, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:47:y:2013:i:4:p:787-813
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-013-9431-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Joseph Nichols & Anthony Sanders, 2015. "What is Subordination About? Credit Risk and Subordination Levels in Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS)," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 231-253, August.
    2. Juan-Gabriel Gonzalez-Morales & Marina Checa-Olivas & Rafael Cano-Guervos, 2021. "Impact of Evictions and Tourist Apartments on the Residential Rental Market in Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-13, July.
    3. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    4. Lok Man Michel Tong & Gianluca Marcato, 2018. "Modelling Competitive Mortgage Termination Option Strategies: Default vs Restructuring and Prepayment vs Defeasance," ERES eres2018_300, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. McCollum, Meagan & Milcheva, Stanimira, 2023. "How ‘bad’ is renter protection for institutional investment in multifamily housing?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default risk; CMBS loan; Local trait; Hazard model; G21; G12; C41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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