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Estimating Default Probabilities of CMBS Loans with Clustering and Heavy Censoring

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  • Yildiray Yildirim

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-007-9046-6
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (August)
    Pages: 93-111

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:37:y:2008:i:2:p:93-111

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

    Related research

    Keywords: Multilevel mixture model; Credit risk; CMBS;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller, Walter III & Epperson, James F., 1987. "The valuation and securitization of commercial and multifamily mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 525-546, September.
    2. Duolao Wang & Mike Murphy, 1998. "Use of a mixture model for the analysis of contraceptive-use duration among long-term users," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 319-332.
    3. Bolstad W. M & Manda S. O, 2001. "Investigating Child Mortality in Malawi Using Family and Community Random Effects: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 12-19, March.
    4. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    5. Wayne R. Archer & Peter J. Elmer & David M. Harrison & David C. Ling, 2002. "Determinants of Multifamily Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 445-473.
    6. Brian A. Ciochetti & Yongheng Deng & Bin Gao & Rui Yao, 2002. "The Termination of Commercial Mortgage Contracts through Prepayment and Default: A Proportional Hazard Approach with Competing Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 595-633.
    7. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    8. Ciochetti, Brian A, et al, 2003. "A Proportional Hazards Model of Commercial Mortgage Default with Originator Bias," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-23, July.
    9. Andreas D. Christopoulos & Robert A. Jarrow & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) and Market Efficiency with Respect to Costly Information," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 441-498, 09.
    10. Kerry D. Vandell, 1992. "Predicting Commercial Mortgage Foreclosure Experience," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 55-88.
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    Cited by:
    1. James Kau & Donald Keenan & Yildiray Yildirim, 2009. "Estimating Default Probabilities Implicit in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS)," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 107-117, August.
    2. Tong, Edward N.C. & Mues, Christophe & Thomas, Lyn C., 2012. "Mixture cure models in credit scoring: If and when borrowers default," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 132-139.
    3. An, Xudong & Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart A., 2011. "Asymmetric information, adverse selection, and the pricing of CMBS," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 304-325, May.
    4. Driessen, Joost & Van Hemert, Otto, 2012. "Pricing of commercial real estate securities during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 37-61.

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