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Comparing two financial crises: the case of Hong Kong real estate markets

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  • LEUNG, K. Y. Charles
  • TANG, C. H. Edward

Abstract

Hong Kong is no stranger to bubbles or crisis. During the Asian Financial Crisis(AFC), the Hong Kong housing price index drops more than 50% in less than a year. The same market then experiences the Internet Bubble, the SARS attack, and recently the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper attempts to provide some “stylized facts” of the real estate markets and the macroeconomy, and follow the event-study methodology to examine whether the markets behave differently in the AFC and GFC, and discuss the possible linkage to the change in government policies (“learning effect”) and the flow of Chinese consumers and investors to Hong Kong (“China factor”).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 31562.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:31562

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Keywords: regime switching; structural change; small open economy; bounded rationality; banking policy;

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References

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  1. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
  2. Serpil Canbaş & Serkan Yılmaz Kandır, 2009. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 36-52, July.
  3. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2010. "House prices, collateral constraint, and the asymmetric effect on consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 26-37, March.
  4. Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2008. "Asset Price Spillover, Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 351-385, November.
  5. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2012. "In the shadow of the United States: the international transmission effect of asset returns," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 121, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  2. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ma, Wai Yip & Zhang, Jun, 2013. "The Market Valuation of Interior Design and Developers strategies: a simple Theory and some Evidence," MPRA Paper 43896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2014. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Banks' Resilience to Property Price Shocks - Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 032014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Tang, Edward Chi Ho, 2013. "Speculating China economic growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from the stock market IPO and real estate markets," MPRA Paper 46346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Leung, Tommy Tin Cheuk & Tsang, Byron Kwok Ping, 2014. "Tax-driven Bunching of Housing Market Transactions: The case of Hong Kong," MPRA Paper 53729, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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