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Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Serpil Canbaş
  • Serkan Yılmaz Kandır

Abstract

This paper investigates the relation between investor sentiment and stock returns on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, employing vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and Granger causality tests. The sample period extends from July 1997 to June 2005. In the VAR models, stock portfolio returns and investor sentiment proxies are used as endogenous variables. Two dummy variables accounting for natural and economic crises are used as exogenous variables. The analysis results suggest that, excepting shares of equity issues in aggregate issues, stock portfolio returns seem to affect all investor sentiment proxies, namely closed-end fund discount, mutual fund flows, odd-lot sales-to-purchases ratio, and repo holdings of mutual funds. Investor sentiment does not appear to forecast future stock returns; only the turnover ratio of the stock market seems to have forecasting potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Serpil Canbaş & Serkan Yılmaz Kandır, 2009. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 36-52, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:45:y:2009:i:4:p:36-52
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Huang, Yingbo, 2018. "The role of investor sentiment in the long-term correlation between U.S. stock and bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 127-139.
    2. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Smeaton, Alan F., 2016. "Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 561-572.
    3. Jing Shi & Marcel Ausloos & Tingting Zhu, 2022. "If global or local investor sentiments are prone to developing an impact on stock returns, is there an industry effect?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1309-1320, January.
    4. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Bermingham, Adam, 2015. "Sentiment in oil markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 179-185.
    5. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin, 2013. "An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 909-937, October.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2021. "The effects of investor attention and policy uncertainties on cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 830-852.
    7. Tsai, I-Chun, 2016. "Wealth effect and investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 111-123.
    8. LEUNG, K. Y. Charles & TANG, C. H. Edward, 2011. "Comparing two financial crises: the case of Hong Kong real estate markets," MPRA Paper 31562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.
    11. Salhin, Ahmed & Sherif, Mohamed & Jones, Edward, 2016. "Managerial sentiment, consumer confidence and sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 24-38.
    12. Tsai, I-Chun, 2017. "Diffusion of optimistic and pessimistic investor sentiment: An empirical study of an emerging market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 22-34.
    13. Bhattacherjee, Purba & Mishra, Sibanjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Does market sentiment and global uncertainties influence ESG-oil nexus? A time-frequency analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).

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