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How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks through Financial Markets

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  • Karl Case
  • John Quigley

Abstract

This paper considers dynamics in the reversal of booms in the housing market. We analyze three related mechanisms which govern the propagation of changes in the housing market throughout the rest of an advanced economy: wealth effects, income effects, and effects through financial markets. As the decade-long boom in the US housing market unwinds, we anticipate that there will be small wealth effects transmitted to the economy, but there will be large income effects affecting the rest of the economy and substantial financial market effects. If the current decline in housing starts and residential investment echoes the declines of the last three housing downturns, we estimate that gross national product (GNP) growth will be reduced by close to 3 per cent. Beyond the decline in housing investment, the recent turmoil in financial markets makes a recession induced by housing market conditions increasingly likely.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal European Journal of Housing Policy.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 161-180

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjhp:v:8:y:2008:i:2:p:161-180

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Related research

Keywords: Housing cycles; residential investment; recession;

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References

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  1. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
  5. Dwight M. Jaffee & John M. Quigley, 1975. "Housing Policy, Mortgage Policy, and the Federal Housing Administration," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 97-125 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
  7. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, Winter.
  8. David L. Wickens & Ray R. Foster, 1937. "Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936," NBER Chapters, in: Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936, pages 1-20 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Moses Abramovitz, 1964. "Evidences of Long Swings in Aggregate Construction Since the Civil War," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra64-1, October.
  10. Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2007. "The housing finance revolution," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 21-67.
  11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  12. David L. Wickens & Ray R. Foster, 1937. "Non-Farm Residential Construction, 1920-1936," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wick37-1, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2012. "Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1884, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Salotti, Simone, 2010. "Wealth effect in the US: evidence from the combination of two surveys," MPRA Paper 27352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Simone Salotti, 2010. "An appraisal of the wealth effect in the US: evidence from pseudo-panel data," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2010-06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  4. Karl E. Case, 2008. "The Central Role of Home Prices in the Current Financial Crisis: How Will the Market Clear?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 161-193.
  5. Craig A. Depken II & Harris Hollans & Steve Swidler, 2011. "Flips, flops and foreclosures: anatomy of a real estate bubble," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 49-65, February.
  6. Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2011. "Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1784, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "Current Account Patterns and National Real Estate Markets," NBER Working Papers 13921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Shiller, Robert J., 2008. "Derivatives Markets for Home Prices," Working Papers 46, Yale University, Department of Economics.
  9. Turner, Tracy M. & Luea, Heather, 2009. "Homeownership, wealth accumulation and income status," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 104-114, June.
  10. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: lessons for the future," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Cynthia A. Bansa & Martha A. Starr, 2011. "Distributional costs of the housing-price bust," Working Papers 2011-04, American University, Department of Economics.
  12. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M., 2009. "How Housing Busts End: Home Prices, User Cost, and Rigidities During Down Cycles," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6mh9m4ff, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  13. Salotti, Simone, 2009. "Wealth effect in the US: evidence from brand new micro-data," MPRA Paper 17732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Michael Brocker & Christopher Hanes, 2013. "The 1920s American Real Estate Boom and the Downturn of the Great Depression: Evidence from City Cross Sections," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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