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What Drives Urban Consumption In Mainland China? The Role Of Property Price Dynamics

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  • Yu-Fu Chen
  • Michael Funke
  • Aaron Mehrotra

Abstract

This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city-level panel dataset for the period 1998Q1 – 2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theoretical model.

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File URL: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/media/dundeewebsite/economicstudies/documents/discussion/DDPE_255.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Studies, University of Dundee in its series Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics with number 255.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:255

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Keywords: Consumption; house prices; China; panel data;

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  1. Carroll, Christopher D. & Otsuka, Misuzu & Slacalek, Jiri, 2010. "How large are housing and financial wealth effects? A new approach," Working Paper Series 1283, European Central Bank.
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  5. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2011. "What Drives Urban Consumption In Mainland China? The Role Of Property Price Dynamics," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 255, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
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  7. Joanne Cutler, 2004. "The Relationship between Consumption, Income and Wealth in Hong Kong," Macroeconomics 0403013, EconWPA.
  8. Marjorie Flavin & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2008. "A Model of Housing in the Presence of Adjustment Costs: A Structural Interpretation of Habit Persistence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 474-95, March.
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  16. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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  18. Jie Gan, 2010. "Housing Wealth and Consumption Growth: Evidence from a Large Panel of Households," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2229-2267, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2011. "What drives urban consumption in mainland China? The role of property price dynamics," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages R39-R48, February.
  3. Bussière, Matthieu & Kalantzis, Yannick & Lafarguette, Romain & Sicular, Terry, 2013. "Understanding household savings in China: the role of the housing market and borrowing constraints," MPRA Paper 44611, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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