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Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up as Investment Slows?

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  • Chivakul, Mali
  • Kassner, Bernhard

Abstract

China's exceptionally large share of investment in GDP has been widely noted. Rebalancing away from investment to consumption has been on China's agenda to realize more sustainable growth. As investment growth slows, the question is whether consumption could replace investment as a growth engine. This paper empirically explores the drivers of Chinese household consumption and specifically tests whether investment has affected household consumption beyond the standard income channel. Our empirical results using both national- and provincial-level data suggest that investment has had a significant impact on household consumption beyond the household income channel. The effects are particularly strong in the post-Global Financial Crisis period, suggesting that the Chinese government's stimulus measures, which aimed mostly at investment spending, have significantly affected households' decision to consume both through households' current and expected future income channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Chivakul, Mali & Kassner, Bernhard, 2019. "Can Consumption Growth in China Keep Up as Investment Slows?," Munich Reprints in Economics 78225, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:78225
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    Cited by:

    1. Iikka Korhonen, 2019. "Forty Years of Chinese Reforms: An Overview," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 349-358, September.
    2. K. Buysse & D. Essers & E. Vincent, 2018. "Can China avoid the middle-income trap?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 63-78, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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