The determinants of consumer confidence: the case of United States and Belgium
AbstractThe paper is dealing with the controversial question of the potential impact of stock market fluctuations on consumer confidence. In the last few years, this confidence index has gained importance in business cycle analysis and empirical evidence has shown its explanatory power in forecasting consumption along with standard macroeconomic variables. Meanwhile, numerous interpretations of its fluctuations arose, and few were based on a solid argumentation. Therefore, we propose in this paper to determine which elements are actually driving the confidence index. Using the standard error-correction mechanism model and non-linear methods, we analyze the relationship between the confidence index and several economic variables, over the period ranging from January 1983 to December 2001. As a growing number of economic observers claim the stock market fluctuations have a strong impact on consumer confidence, we especially focus on this potential impact. The models are estimated for the United States and for Belgium for which the importance of equities in the households net wealth is quite different. We find in particular that stock market fluctuations have explanatory power in the evolution of consumer confidence in the United States, especially since the beginning of the nineties.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2003053.
Date of creation: 00 Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Voie du Roman Pays 34, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)
Fax: +32 10474304
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/core
More information through EDIRC
consumer conﬁdence; business cycles; consumer surveys; stock prices;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998.
"Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
- Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1997. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure?: A sentiment index horse race," Research Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1998.
"How important is the stock market effect on consumption?,"
9821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Charles Steindel, 1999. "How important is the stock market effect on consumption?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 29-51.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Md. Kabir Ahmed Chowdhury & G.M. Abul Kalam Azad, 2010. "Consumer Confidence in Financial Markets," Working Papers id:3265, eSocialSciences.
- Konstantinou, Panagiotis & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011.
"Boosting confidence: Is there a role for fiscal policy?,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1629-1641, July.
- Panagiotis Konstantinou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2010. "Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?," Working Papers 113, Bank of Greece.
- Panagiotis Konstantinou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2011. "Boosting Confidence: Is there a Role for Fiscal Policy?," Discussion Paper Series 2011_03, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Mar 2011.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alain GILLIS).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.