Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case
AbstractThe following analysis, based on error correction models, suggests that consumer confidence, together with traditional macroeconomic variables, contains a forecasting and explicative power on consumption. By including consumer confidence in a consumption function, consumer confidence releases a significant coefficient. Such a confidence-augmented consumption model provides good forecasting results.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 911.
Date of creation: 22 Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Consumer confidence; consumption function; forecasting; consumer attitudes and behaviour; households;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
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