Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010
AbstractHow do macroeconomic variables affect housing prices? In this paper we apply a non-linear modeling approach, the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (NARMAX), to investigate determinants of housing prices in China over the period 1999:01 to 2010:06. The NARMAX approach, combined with the famous Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), has an advantage over prevailing methods in that it automatically selects linear and non-linear forms of variables and the numbers of corresponding lags according to statistical properties. Estimation results mainly identify some key monetary and price variables in interpreting housing price dynamics, including most notably mortgage rate, producer price, broad money supply and real effective exchange rate. Meanwhile, real economic variables such as income are not independently significant.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.
Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411
Housing prices; Monetary policy; NARMAX; China;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
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