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The impact of land policy on the relation between housing and land prices: Evidence from China

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  • Du, Hongyan
  • Ma, Yongkai
  • An, Yunbi
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    Abstract

    This paper reviews the evolution of Chinese land policy over the past two decades and examines its impact on the dynamic relationship between housing and land prices in the Chinese real estate market. Using panel datasets from Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing, we find that there exists a long-run equilibrium between Chinese urban housing and land markets. At the same time, there is unidirectional Granger causality between housing and land prices in the short run: housing prices are Granger caused by land prices, while the reverse does not hold. We also show that urban housing markets are more informationally efficient than urban land markets. Moreover, the housing and land markets are less efficient since the adoption of a new land granting system in China in 2004, as both markets respond to market disequilibria more slowly than before.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 51 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 19-27

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:51:y:2011:i:1:p:19-27

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167

    Related research

    Keywords: Land policy Housing price Land price Cointegration Granger causality;

    References

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    1. Liang Peng & Thomas Thibodeau, 2012. "Government Interference and the Efficiency of the Land Market in China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 919-938, November.
    2. Raphael W. Bostic & Stanley D. Longhofer & Christian L. Redfearn, 2007. "Land Leverage: Decomposing Home Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-208, 06.
    3. Michael J. Potepan, 1996. "Explaining Intermetropolitan Variation in Housing Prices, Rents and Land Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 219-245.
    4. Liang, Qi & Cao, Hua, 2007. "Property prices and bank lending in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 63-75, February.
    5. Mark G. Dotzour & Everard Moorhead & Daniel T. Winkler, 1998. "The Impact of Auctions on Residential Sales Prices in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 57-72.
    6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    7. Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2006. "Exploring Metropolitan Housing Price Volatility," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 5-18, August.
    8. Zheng, Siqi & Kahn, Matthew E., 2008. "Land and residential property markets in a booming economy: New evidence from Beijing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 743-757, March.
    9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    10. Marcus T. Allen & Judith Swisher, 2000. "An Analysis of the Price Formation Process at a HUD Auction," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 20(3), pages 279-298.
    11. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    12. Joseph T.L. Ooi & C.F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 2006. "Price Formation Under Small Numbers Competition: Evidence from Land Auctions in Singapore," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 51-76, 03.
    13. Ahmed Alyousha & Christopher Tsoukis, 1998. "Ricardian causal ordering and the relation between house and land prices: evidence from England," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 325-328.
    14. Ozanne, Larry & Thibodeau, Thomas, 1983. "Explaining metropolitan housing price differences," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 51-66, January.
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    Cited by:
    1. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
    2. Zhang, Dingsheng & Cheng, Wenli & Ng, Yew-Kwang, 2013. "Increasing returns, land use controls and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 789-795.
    3. Ge He, 2013. "Equilibrium-Oriented Housing Supply: A Case Study of Chengdu City, China," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(4), pages 557-568, June.
    4. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:785-807 is not listed on IDEAS

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