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Exploring Metropolitan Housing Price Volatility

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Author Info
Norman Miller ()
Liang Peng
Abstract

This paper uses GARCH models and a panel VAR model to analyze possible time variation of the volatility of single-family home value appreciation and the interactions between the volatility and the economy, using a large quarterly data set that covers 277 MSAs in the U.S. from 1990:1 to 2002:2. We find evidence of time varying volatility in about 17% of the MSAs. Using volatility series estimated with GARCH models, we find that the volatility is Granger-caused by the home appreciation rate and GMP growth rate. On the other hand, the volatility Granger-causes the personal income growth rate but the impact is not economically significant. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-006-8271-8
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 5-18
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:33:y:2006:i:1:p:5-18

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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Related research
Keywords: Home value appreciation; Housing price volatility; Urban economy; Panel VAR;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 3368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," NBER Working Papers 9759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Dennis R. Capozza & Dick Kazarian & Thomas A. Thomson, 1997. "Mortgage Default in Local Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 631-655. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2003. "The impact of building restrictions on housing affordability," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 21-39. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 535-567. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & John M. Quigley, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Clapp John M. & Giaccotto Carmelo, 1994. "The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 161-183, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Case, Karl E. & Mayer, Christopher J., 1996. "Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 387-407, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2001. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," NBER Working Papers 8598, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Walter Dolde & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 2002. "Housing Price Volatility Changes and Their Effects," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. William N. Goetzmann & Andrew Caplin & Eric Hangen & Barry Nalebuff & Elisabeth Prentice & John Rodkin & Tom Skinner & Matthew I. Spiegel, 2003. "Home Equity Insurance: A Pilot Project," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm372, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  18. Walter Dolde & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 1997. "Temporal and Spatial Information Diffusion in Real Estate Price Changes and Variances," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 539-565. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Rose, Louis A., 1989. "Urban land supply: Natural and contrived restrictions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 325-345, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. William Miles, 2009. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Housing Investment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 173-182, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. W. Miles, 2008. "Boom–Bust Cycles and the Forecasting Performance of Linear and Non-Linear Models of House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 249-264, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Changrong Deng & Yongkai Ma & Yao-Min Chiang, 2009. "The Dynamic Behavior of Chinese Housing Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(2), pages 121-134. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mohamadou Fadiga & Yongsheng Wang, 2009. "A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 13-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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