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Exploring Metropolitan Housing Price Volatility

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Author Info

  • Norman Miller

    ()

  • Liang Peng

Abstract

This paper uses GARCH models and a panel VAR model to analyze possible time variation of the volatility of single-family home value appreciation and the interactions between the volatility and the economy, using a large quarterly data set that covers 277 MSAs in the U.S. from 1990:1 to 2002:2. We find evidence of time varying volatility in about 17% of the MSAs. Using volatility series estimated with GARCH models, we find that the volatility is Granger-caused by the home appreciation rate and GMP growth rate. On the other hand, the volatility Granger-causes the personal income growth rate but the impact is not economically significant. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-006-8271-8
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 5-18

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:33:y:2006:i:1:p:5-18

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

Related research

Keywords: Home value appreciation; Housing price volatility; Urban economy; Panel VAR;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michail Karoglou & Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2013. "Risk and Structural Instability in US House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 424-436, April.
  2. Todd H. Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2009. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Us State Level," Working Papers 09-04, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  3. Coulson, N. Edward & Liu, Crocker H. & Villupuram, Sriram V., 2013. "Urban economic base as a catalyst for movements in real estate prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1023-1040.
  4. William Miles, 2011. "Long-Range Dependence in U.S. Home Price Volatility," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 329-347, April.
  5. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2003. "Pricing Factors in Real Estate Markets: A Simple Preference Based Approach," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 102-120.
  6. Anupam Nanda & Stephen Ross, 2012. "The Impact of Property Condition Disclosure Laws on Housing Prices: Evidence from an Event Study Using Propensity Scores," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 88-109, June.
  7. Mohamadou Fadiga & Yongsheng Wang, 2009. "A multivariate unobserved component analysis of US housing market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 13-26, January.
  8. Russell Kashian & David Welsch, 2008. "A Regional Examination of Foreclosures," Working Papers 08-04, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
  9. William Miles, 2009. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Housing Investment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 173-182, February.
  10. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Teo, Wing Leong, 2011. "Should the optimal portfolio be region-specific? A multi-region model with monetary policy and asset price co-movements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 293-304, May.
  11. Simlai, Prodosh, 2014. "Estimation of variance of housing prices using spatial conditional heteroskedasticity (SARCH) model with an application to Boston housing price data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 17-30.
  12. Geoff Willcocks, 2009. "UK Housing Market: Time Series Processes with Independent and Identically Distributed Residuals," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 403-414, November.
  13. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2010. "House price dynamics, conditional higher-order moments, and density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1029-1039, September.
  14. Du, Hongyan & Ma, Yongkai & An, Yunbi, 2011. "The impact of land policy on the relation between housing and land prices: Evidence from China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 19-27, February.
  15. Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander & Marc W. Simpson, 2011. "Return and Volatility Transmission in U.S. Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 701-741, December.
  16. Changrong Deng & Yongkai Ma & Yao-Min Chiang, 2009. "The Dynamic Behavior of Chinese Housing Prices," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(2), pages 121-134.
  17. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
  18. W. Miles, 2008. "Boom–Bust Cycles and the Forecasting Performance of Linear and Non-Linear Models of House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 249-264, April.
  19. Anupam Nanda, 2005. "Property Condition Disclosure Law: Does 'Seller Tell All' Matter in Property Values?," Working papers 2005-47, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2006.

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