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Wage Bargaining Coordination and the Phillips Curve in Italy

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Author Info
Alessandra Del Boca
Michele Fratianni
Franco Spinelli
Carmine Trecroci

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Abstract

Was there a textbook-like Phillips curve in post-WWII Italy? We estimate a consensus model of the relationship between inflation and the level of economic activity over 1949-1998, finding no evidence of a significant and positive feedback from output to prices. We also estimate similar models for the UK and the US. We discuss the role of wage coordination and indexation mechanisms in generating what amounts to a significant departure of Italian data from what holds true for the US and UK. Likely, the rigid indexation mechanism that aimed at protecting wages from inflation ended up contributing to the persistent inflation bias that Italy experienced almost until its entry into EMU.

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Paper provided by University of Brescia, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0901.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:0901

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, . "Macroeconomic effects of regulation and deregulation in goods and labor markets," Working Papers 187, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kilponen, Juha, 1999. "Central Bank Independence and Wage Bargaining Structure - Empirical Evidence," Research Discussion Papers 9/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-15.

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