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Wage Bargaining Coordination and the Phillips Curve in Italy

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  • Alessandra Del Boca
  • Michele Fratianni
  • Franco Spinelli
  • Carmine Trecroci

Abstract

Was there a textbook-like Phillips curve in post-WWII Italy? We estimate a consensus model of the relationship between inflation and the level of economic activity over 1949-1998, finding no evidence of a significant and positive feedback from output to prices. We also estimate similar models for the UK and the US. We discuss the role of wage coordination and indexation mechanisms in generating what amounts to a significant departure of Italian data from what holds true for the US and UK. Likely, the rigid indexation mechanism that aimed at protecting wages from inflation ended up contributing to the persistent inflation bias that Italy experienced almost until its entry into EMU.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Brescia, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0901.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:0901

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 8120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kilponen, Juha, 1999. "Central Bank Independence and Wage Bargaining Structure - Empirical Evidence," Research Discussion Papers 9/1999, Bank of Finland.
  3. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737.
  4. David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson, 2002. "Changes over time in union relative wage effects in the UK and the US revisited," NBER Working Papers 9395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2006. "Estimation of a forward-looking monetary policy rule: A time-varying parameter model using ex post data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1949-1966, November.
  6. Fratianni, Michele & Spinelli, Franco, 2001. "Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 252-272, April.
  7. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Alessandro Fedele & Paolo M. Panteghini & Sergio Vergalli, 2010. "Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax Rate Uncertainty," Working Papers 2010.68, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Alessandra Del Boca & Michele Fratianni & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2008. "The Phillips Curve and the Italian Lira, 1861-1998," Working Papers 2008-05, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
  3. Alessandro Fedele & Raffaele Miniaci, 2010. "Do Social Enterprises Finance Their Investments Differently from For-profit Firms? The Case of Social Residential Services in Italy," Journal of Social Entrepreneurship, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 174-189, October.
  4. Alessandro Fedele & Francesco Liucci & Andrea Mantovani, 2009. "Credit availability in the crisis: the European investment bank group," Working Papers 0913, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  5. Martin Meier & Enrico Minelli & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2009. "Competitive Markets with Private Information on Both Sides," Working Papers 0917, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  6. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic-Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 1002, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  7. BISIN, Alberto & GEANAKOPOLS, John & GOTTARDI, Piero & MINELLI, Enrico & POLEMARCHAKIS, Herakles, 2011. "Markets and Contracts," Open Access publications from European University Institute urn:hdl:1814/19838, European University Institute.
  8. Francesco Menoncin & Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "Retrospective Capital Gains Taxation in the Real World," CESifo Working Paper Series 2674, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Rosella Levaggi & Francesco Menoncin, 2009. "Decentralized provision of merit and impure public goods," Working Papers 0909, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.

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