Do Thai stock prices deviate from fundamental values?
AbstractThe stock market in Thailand experienced several apparent boom and bust cycles in recent years, which raises the question of whether equity prices in Thailand reflect their fundamental values. This paper examines whether the Thai equity market was characterized by rational expectations bubbles over the sample period from June 1975 to June 2006. The cointegration test provides evidence of no long-run relationship among prices, dividends and earnings, indicating the presence of a rational bubble. The results are confirmed by the non-parametric duration dependence test, which shows evidence of negative duration dependence in runs of positive returns, consistent with the presence of rational expectations bubbles. Further analysis reveals departures from fundamental values in the initial sample subperiod ending with the Asian financial crisis in 1997. However, prices appear to be in line with fundamentals in the more recent post-1997 subperiod.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.
Volume (Year): 16 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
- Xiaoquan Jiang & Bon-Soo Lee, 2005. "An Empirical Test of the Accounting-Based Residual Income Model and the Traditional Dividend Discount Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1465-1504, July.
- Blackburn, K. & Sola, M., 1992.
"Market fundamentals versus speculative bubbles. A new test applied to the German hyperinflation,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
9208, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1996. "Market Fundamentals versus Speculative Bubbles: A New Test Applied to the German Hyperinflation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(4), pages 303-17, October.
- Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Permanent, Temporary, and Non-Fundamental Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(01), pages 1-32, March.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994.
"By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior,"
94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lavin, Angeline M & Zorn, Thomas S, 2001. "Empirical Tests of the Fundamental-Value Hypothesis in Land Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 99-116, January.
- Koivu, Matti & Pennanen, Teemu & Ziemba, William T., 2005. "Cointegration analysis of the Fed model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 248-259, December.
- Darrat, Ali F., 1990. "Stock Returns, Money, and Fiscal Deficits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(03), pages 387-398, September.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
- R. Chiang & Ian Davidson & John Okunev, 1996.
"Some Further Theoretical and Empirical Implications Regarding the Relationship between Earnings, Dividends and Returns,"
Working Paper Series
60, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Chiang, Raymond & Davidson, Ian & Okunev, John, 1997. "Some further theoretical and empirical implications regarding the relationship between earnings, dividends and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-35, January.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988.
"Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends,"
334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- G. Lim, 2005. "Bounded dividends, earnings and fundamental stock values," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 411-426, 09.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
NBER Working Papers
1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Juha Junttila, 2003. "Detecting speculative bubbles in an IT-intensive stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 166-189, June.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Kenneth D. West, 1986.
"A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles,"
NBER Working Papers
2067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
- McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1994. "Bubbles, Stock Returns, and Duration Dependence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 379-401, September.
- Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Anderson, Dwight C., 2003. "Do US stock prices deviate from their fundamental values? Some new evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 673-697, April.
- Diba, Behzad T. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1988.
"Rational inflationary bubbles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 35-46, January.
- Lee, Bong-Soo, 1996. "Comovements of earnings, dividends, and stock prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 327-346, December.
- Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
- Ackert, Lucy F & Smith, Brian F, 1993. " Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1147-60, September.
- Chan, Kalok & McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1998. "Are there rational speculative bubbles in Asian stock markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 125-151, May.
- G. Capelle-Blancard & H. Raymond, 2004. "Empirical evidence on periodically collapsing stock price bubbles," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 61-69.
- L. Sarno & M. P. Taylor, 2003. "An empirical investigation of asset price bubbles in Latin American emerging financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 635-643.
- Kormendi, Roger & Lipe, Robert, 1987. "Earnings Innovations, Earnings Persistence, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 323-45, July.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August.
- Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2005. "Rational bubbles or persistent deviations from market fundamentals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2523-2539, October.
- Chen, Chung & Wu, Chunchi, 1999. "The dynamics of dividends, earnings and prices: evidence and implications for dividend smoothing and signaling," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 29-58, January.
- Jun Nagayasu, 2000. "Currency Crisis and Contagion," IMF Working Papers 00/39, International Monetary Fund.
- Ahmad, Mahyudin, 2012. "Duration dependence test for rational speculative bubble: the strength and weakness," MPRA Paper 42156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Avkiran, Necmi K. & Morita, Hiroshi, 2010. "Predicting Japanese bank stock performance with a composite relative efficiency metric: A new investment tool," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 254-271, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.