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An Empirical Test of the Accounting-Based Residual Income Model and the Traditional Dividend Discount Model

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  • Xiaoquan Jiang

    (University of Northern Iowa)

  • Bon-Soo Lee

    (College of Business, Florida State University)

Abstract

Given the failure of the conventional dividend discount model to explain volatile, dynamic stock price movements, we test the empirical validity of an alternative model, the accounting-based residual income model (RIM), which posits that the current stock price equals the current book value of equity plus the present value of expected future residual income. We test two implications of the two models: volatility of prices relative to fundamentals and the model's dynamic implications by cross-equation restrictions. We find that, for stock valuation, book values and accounting earnings in the RIM contain more useful information than dividends alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoquan Jiang & Bon-Soo Lee, 2005. "An Empirical Test of the Accounting-Based Residual Income Model and the Traditional Dividend Discount Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1465-1504, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:4:p:1465-1504
    DOI: 10.1086/430866
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Schröder, David & Esterer, Florian, 2012. "A new measure of equity duration: The duration-based explanation of the value premium revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2008. "Miller and Modigliani, Predictive Return Regressions and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 181-207, April.
    3. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2007. "Stock returns, dividend yield, and book-to-market ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 455-475, February.
    4. Florian Esterer & David Schröder, 2014. "Implied cost of capital investment strategies: evidence from international stock markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-195, May.
    5. Pan, Ming-Shiun, 2007. "Permanent and transitory components of earnings, dividends, and stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 535-549, September.
    6. Shih-Cheng Lee & Chien-Ting Lin & Min-Teh Yu, 2013. "A fractional cointegration approach to testing the Ohlson accounting based valuation model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 535-547, October.
    7. Daniel Giamouridis & Chris Montagu, 2014. "The Sophisticated and the Simple: The Profitability of Contrarian Strategies from a Portfolio Manager's Perspective," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(1), pages 152-178, January.
    8. Tswei, Keshin, 2013. "Is transaction price more value relevant compared to accounting information? An investigation of a time-series approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1062-1078.
    9. Michael Wegener & Göran Kauermann, 2008. "Examining heterogeneity in implied equity risk premium using penalized splines," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(1), pages 35-56, February.
    10. Manuel Rocha Armada & Lawrence Kryzanowski & Paulo Jorge Pereira, 2011. "Optimal Investment Decisions for Two Positioned Firms Competing in a Duopoly Market with Hidden Competitors," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(2), pages 305-330, March.
    11. Ahmad, Mahyudin, 2012. "Duration dependence test for rational speculative bubble: the strength and weakness," MPRA Paper 42156, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Faisal M. Awwal & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2021. "A state space framework for the residual income valuation model of stock prices," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-28, April.
    13. Kuo, Chen-Yin, 2016. "Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 772-789.
    14. Chen-Yin Kuo, 2017. "Is the accuracy of stock value forecasting relevant to industry factors or firm-specific factors? An empirical study of the Ohlson model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 195-225, July.
    15. Man Fu & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2011. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, December.
    16. Yen-Hsiao Chen & Patricia Fraser, 2010. "What drives stock prices? Fundamentals, bubbles and investor behaviour," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1461-1477.
    17. Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Emekter, Riza & Rao, Ramesh P., 2008. "Do Thai stock prices deviate from fundamental values?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 298-315, June.
    18. Arturo Leccadito & Stefania Veltri, 2015. "A regime switching Ohlson model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2015-2035, September.

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