Predicting Japanese bank stock performance with a composite relative efficiency metric: A new investment tool
AbstractThe paper's main objective is to predict bank stock performance one year ahead with a composite efficiency metric from relative contextual financial analysis. We bring together financial ratios, generalized data envelopment analysis and simulated annealing to rank Japanese banks on stock performance predicted from relative efficiency scores. An application of this ranking in a profitable investment strategy by designating long and short portfolios underscores the potential commercial value of the method. The method can also be used to monitor the effectiveness of ratios in forecasting stock performance and it is conducive to selecting predictive ratios when markets are changing rapidly.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.
Volume (Year): 18 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin
Stock performance Contextual analysis Generalized DEA Simulated annealing Japanese banks;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- R. D. Banker & A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1984. "Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(9), pages 1078-1092, September.
- Ou, Jane A. & Penman, Stephen H., 1989. "Financial statement analysis and the prediction of stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 295-329, November.
- Chu, Sing Fat & Lim, Guan Hua, 1998. "Share performance and profit efficiency of banks in an oligopolistic market: evidence from Singapore," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2-3), pages 155-168, September.
- Beneish, Messod D., 1997. "Detecting GAAP violation: implications for assessing earnings management among firms with extreme financial performance," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 271-309.
- Itay Kama, 2009. "On the Market Reaction to Revenue and Earnings Surprises," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1-2), pages 31-50.
- Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Emekter, Riza & Rao, Ramesh P., 2008. "Do Thai stock prices deviate from fundamental values?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 298-315, June.
- Edirisinghe, N.C.P. & Zhang, X., 2007. "Generalized DEA model of fundamental analysis and its application to portfolio optimization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3311-3335, November.
- Weihong Xu, 2009. "Evidence That Management Earnings Forecasts Do Not Fully Incorporate Information in Prior Forecast Errors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7-8), pages 822-837.
- Holthausen, Robert W. & Larcker, David F., 1992. "The prediction of stock returns using financial statement information," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2-3), pages 373-411, August.
- Per Andersen & Niels Christian Petersen, 1993. "A Procedure for Ranking Efficient Units in Data Envelopment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(10), pages 1261-1264, October.
- Truong, Cameron, 2010. "Post earnings announcement drift and the roles of drift-enhanced factors in New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-157, April.
- Cristina Abad & Sten A. Thore & Joaquina Laffarga, 2004. "Fundamental analysis of stocks by two-stage DEA," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 231-241.
- Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
- A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper & E. Rhodes, 1981. "Evaluating Program and Managerial Efficiency: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis to Program Follow Through," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(6), pages 668-697, June.
- Joshua Kirkwood & Daehoon Nahm, 2005.
"Australian Banking Efficiency and its Relation to Stock Returns,"
0508, Macquarie University, Department of Economics.
- Joshua Kirkwood & Daehoon Nahm, 2006. "Australian Banking Efficiency and Its Relation to Stock Returns," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 253-267, 09.
- Banker, Rajiv D. & Cooper, William W. & Seiford, Lawrence M. & Thrall, Robert M. & Zhu, Joe, 2004. "Returns to scale in different DEA models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 345-362, April.
- Chan, Terence & Watson, Iain & Wee, Marvin, 2005. "The impact of the Internet on earnings announcements," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 263-300, June.
- Elena Beccalli & Barbara Casu & Claudia Girardone, 2006. "Efficiency and Stock Performance in European Banking," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1-2), pages 245-262.
- Avkiran, Necmi K. & Goto, Mika, 2011. "A tool for scrutinizing bank bailouts based on multi-period peer benchmarking," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 447-469, November.
- Gaganis , Chrysovalantis & Hasan, Iftekhar & Pasiouras , Fotios, 2013. "Efficiency and stock returns: Evidence from the insurance industry," Research Discussion Papers 14/2013, Bank of Finland.
- Avkiran, Necmi K., 2011. "Association of DEA super-efficiency estimates with financial ratios: Investigating the case for Chinese banks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 323-334, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.