IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v36y2009i7-8p822-837.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence That Management Earnings Forecasts Do Not Fully Incorporate Information in Prior Forecast Errors

Author

Listed:
  • Weihong Xu

Abstract

This paper investigates whether managers fully incorporate the implications of their prior earnings forecast errors into their future earnings forecasts and, if not, whether this behavior is related to the post‐earnings announcement drift. I find a positive association in consecutive management forecast errors, suggesting that managers underestimate the future implications of past earnings information when forecasting earnings. I also find that managers underestimate the information in their prior forecast errors to a greater extent when they make earnings forecasts with a longer horizon. Finally, I find that, similar to managers, the market also underreacts to earnings information in management forecast errors, which leads to predictable stock returns following earnings announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Weihong Xu, 2009. "Evidence That Management Earnings Forecasts Do Not Fully Incorporate Information in Prior Forecast Errors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7‐8), pages 822-837, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:36:y:2009:i:7-8:p:822-837
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2009.02152.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2009.02152.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2009.02152.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skinner, Dj, 1994. "Why Firms Voluntarily Disclose Bad-News," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 38-60.
    2. Marilyn F. Johnson & Ron Kasznik & Karen K. Nelson, 2001. "The Impact of Securities Litigation Reform on the Disclosure of Forward‐Looking Information By High Technology Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 297-327, September.
    3. Waymire, G, 1984. "Additional Evidence On The Information-Content Of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 703-718.
    4. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    5. Rendleman, Richard J, Jr & Jones, Charles P & Latane, Henry A, 1987. "Further Insight into the Standarized Unexpected Earnings Anomaly: Size and Serial Correlation Effects," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 131-144, February.
    6. Ball, Ray & Bartov, Eli, 1996. "How naive is the stock market's use of earnings information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 319-337, June.
    7. Bernard, Vl & Thomas, Jk, 1989. "Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift - Delayed Price Response Or Risk Premium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27, pages 1-36.
    8. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    9. Ajinkya, Bb & Gift, Mj, 1984. "Corporate Managers Earnings Forecasts And Symmetrical Adjustments Of Market Expectations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 425-444.
    10. Abarbanell, Jeffery S., 1991. "Do analysts' earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-165, June.
    11. H. Chan & R. Faff & Y. K. Ho & A. Ramsay, 2006. "Asymmetric Market Reactions of Growth and Value Firms with Management Earnings Forecasts," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 6(1‐2), pages 79-97, March.
    12. Bipin Ajinkya & Sanjeev Bhojraj & Partha Sengupta, 2005. "The Association between Outside Directors, Institutional Investors and the Properties of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 343-376, June.
    13. Mendenhall, Rr, 1991. "Evidence On The Possible Underweighting Of Earnings-Related Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 170-179.
    14. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    15. Kasznik, R, 1999. "On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 57-81.
    16. Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2003. "The effect of experience on security analyst underreaction," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-116, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    2. Thorsten Knauer & Andreas Wömpener, 2011. "Management Forecast Regulation and Practice in Germany – Firm and Auditor Perspectives," Accounting in Europe, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 185-209.
    3. Avkiran, Necmi K. & Morita, Hiroshi, 2010. "Predicting Japanese bank stock performance with a composite relative efficiency metric: A new investment tool," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 254-271, June.
    4. Josef Fink, 2020. "A Review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    5. Stephen Baginski & Elizabeth Demers & Chong Wang & Julia Yu, 2016. "Contemporaneous verification of language: evidence from management earnings forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 165-197, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weihong Xu, 2009. "Evidence That Management Earnings Forecasts Do Not Fully Incorporate Information in Prior Forecast Errors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(7-8), pages 822-837.
    2. Josef Fink, 2020. "A Review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    3. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Jonathan A. Milian, 2015. "Unsophisticated Arbitrageurs and Market Efficiency: Overreacting to a History of Underreaction?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 175-220, March.
    5. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    6. Liu, Chao-Shin & Ziebart, David A., 1999. "Anomalous security price behavior following management earnings forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 405-429, October.
    7. Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2015. "Credibility of management earnings forecasts and future returns," CARF F-Series CARF-F-367, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    8. Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2013. "Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts and Future Returns," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    9. S. P. Kothari & Charles Wasley, 2019. "Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(5), pages 1117-1159, December.
    10. Stanimir Markov & Ane Tamayo, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Analyst Forecast Errors: Learning or Irrationality?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 725-761, September.
    11. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    12. Jeffrey T. Doyle & Russell J. Lundholm & Mark T. Soliman, 2006. "The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following I/B/E/S Earnings Surprises," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 849-887, December.
    13. Leonard C. Soffer & Thomas Lys, 1999. "Post†Earnings Announcement Drift and the Dissemination of Predictable Information," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 305-331, June.
    14. Xiaolou Yang, 2020. "Information Frictions and Stock Returns," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-13, July.
    15. Ball, Ray & Bartov, Eli, 1996. "How naive is the stock market's use of earnings information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 319-337, June.
    16. Jacob K. Thomas, 1999. "Discussion of “Post†Earnings Announcement Drift and the Dissemination of Predictable Information†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 333-340, June.
    17. Xu, Weihong, 2010. "Do management earnings forecasts incorporate information in accruals?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 227-246, April.
    18. Truong, Cameron, 2010. "Post earnings announcement drift and the roles of drift-enhanced factors in New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-157, April.
    19. Michael Ettredge & Richard Toolson & Steve Hall & Chongkil Na, 1996. "Behavior of earnings, stock returns, accruals, and analysts' forecasts following negative annual earnings," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 147-162.
    20. Khimich, Natalya, 2017. "A comparison of alternative cash flow and discount rate news proxies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 31-52.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:36:y:2009:i:7-8:p:822-837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.