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Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Causal Linkage

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale

    ()
    (London South Bank University)

  • Peter G. A Howells

    (University of the West of England)

  • Alaa M. Soliman

    (Leeds Metropolitan University)

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    Abstract

    This paper addresses the question: does stock market development cause growth? It examines the causal linkage between stock market development, financial development and economic growth. The argument is that any inference that financial liberalisation causes savings or investment or growth, or that financial intermediation causes growth, drawn from bivariate causality tests may be invalid, as invalid causality inferences can result from omitting an important variable. The empirical part of this study exploits techniques recently developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to test for causality in VARs, and emphasises the possibility of omitted variable bias. The evidence obtained from a sample of seven countries suggests that a well-developed stock market can foster economic growth in the long run. It also provides support to theories according to which well-functioning stock markets can promote economic development by fuelling the engine of growth through faster capital accumulation, and by tuning it through better resource allocation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics in its journal Journal Of Economic Development.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 1 (June)
    Pages: 33-50

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    Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:29:y:2004:i:1:p:33-50

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    Related research

    Keywords: Financial Development; Economic Growth; Stock Market; Causality Testing; VARs; Incomplete Systems;

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    References

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    1. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    2. Beck, T.H.L. & Levine, R. & Loayza, N., 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125520, Tilburg University.
    3. Dailami, Mansoor & Atkin, Michael, 1990. "Stock markets in developing countries : key issues and a research agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 515, The World Bank.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
    5. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?," Working Paper Research 53, National Bank of Belgium.
    6. Rousseau, P. L. & Wachtel, P., 2000. "Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980-1995," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1933-1957, December.
    7. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Hussein, Khaled A., 1996. "Does financial development cause economic growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 387-411, December.
    8. Calderon Cesar Augusto & Chong Alberto & Loayza Norman V., 2002. "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-33, March.
    9. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Atje, Raymond & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1993. "Stock markets and development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 632-640, April.
    11. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
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    Cited by:
    1. Laurent Cavenaile & Christian Gengenbach & Franz Palm, 2013. "Stock Markets, Banks and Long Run Economics Growth: A Panel Cointegration-Based Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4513, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Stanislaw Kaszuba, 2010. "Prospects for the Future Growth of the NewConnect Stock Market," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 2, pages 117-126.
    3. Enisan, Akinlo A. & Olufisayo, Akinlo O., 2009. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 162-171.
    4. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2013. "Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 316-324.
    5. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    6. André Farber & Nguyen Huu Tu & Tran Tri Dung & Quan Hoang Vuong, 2008. "The financial storms in Vietnam's transition economy: a reasoning on the 1991-2008 period," Working Papers CEB 08-023.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Finance-growth-poverty nexus in South Africa: A dynamic causality linkage," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 320-325, March.
    8. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Interação entre o mercado acionista e o crescimento económico: Uma apreciação do caso português (1993-2010)
      [Interaction between the stock market and economic growth: An assessment of the Por
      ," MPRA Paper 39808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Castaneda, Gonzalo, 2006. "Economic growth and concentrated ownership in stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 249-286, February.
    10. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa: A trivariate causality test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 635-640, September.
    11. Luis Lanteri, 2013. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth. Some Evidence for Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 201360, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    12. Phiri, Andrew, 2014. "Asymmetric co-integration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth in South Africa," MPRA Paper 53055, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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