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Modelling the structural break in volatility

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Author Info
Konstantin A. Kholodilin
Vincent Wenxiong Yao

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Abstract

Recent studies suggest that US and other developed economies have become considerably stabilized in terms of volatility since the mid-1980s (Stock and Watson, 2002). This study models the structural break in volatility using a dynamic factor model with two state variables: one capturing cyclical fluctuations and another reflecting volatility decline. The new model confirms a one-time volatility reduction in the US economy in February 1984. Four-regime models appear to outperform two-regime models.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 7 (June)
Pages: 417-422
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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:13:y:2006:i:7:p:417-422

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mohamed Safouane Ben Aïssa & Jamel Jouini, 2003. "Structural breaks in the US inflation process," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 633-636, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mohamed Safouane Ben Aïssa & Mohamed Boutahar & Jamel Jouini, 2004. "Bai and Perron's and spectral density methods for structural change detection in the US inflation process," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 109-115, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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