Graph-Based Search Procedure for Vector Autoregressive Models
AbstractVector Autoregressions (VARs) are a class of time series models commonly used in econometrics to study the dynamic effect of exogenous shocks to the economy. While the estimation of a VAR is straightforward, there is a problem of finding the transformation of the estimated model consistent with the causal relations among the contemporaneous variables. Such problem, which is a version of what is called in econometrics “the problem of identification,” is faced in this paper using a semi-automated search procedure. The unobserved causal relations of the structural form, to be identified, are represented by a directed graph. Discovery algorithms are developed to infer features of the causal graph from tests on vanishing partial correlations among the VAR residuals. Such tests cannot be based on the usual tests of conditional independence, because of sampling problems due to the time series nature of the data. This paper proposes consistent tests on vanishing partial correlations based on the asymptotic distribution of the estimated VAR residuals. Two different types of search algorithm are considered. A first algorithm restricts the analysis to direct causation among the contemporaneous variables, a second algorithm allows the possibility of cycles (feedback loops) and common shocks among contemporaneous variables. Recovering the causal structure allows a reliable transformation of the estimated vector autoregressive model which is very useful for macroeconomic empirical investigations, such as comparing the effects of different shocks (real vs. nominal) on the economy and finding a measure of the monetary policy shock.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2005/14.
Date of creation: 12 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
VARs; Problem of Identification; Causal Graphs; Structural Shocks;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernanke, Ben S., 1986.
"Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Haigh, Michael S. & Bessler, David A., 2002.
"Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs,"
2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri
19057, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
- Haigh, Michael S. & Bessler, David A., 2002. "Causality And Price Discovery: An Application Of Directed Acyclic Graphs," Working Papers 28588, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp, 2003.
"Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression,"
33, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
- Hoover, Kevin & Demiralp, Selva, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 03-3, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
- Glymour, Clark & Spirtes, Peter, 1988. "Latent variables, causal models and overidentifying constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 175-198.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Eichler, Michael & Didelez, Vanessa, 2007. "Causal reasoning in graphical time series models," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-13833, Maastricht University.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.