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Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure

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  • Jiazi Chen
  • Zhiwu Hong
  • Linlin Niu

Abstract

An extended dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model is developed with an additional functional demographic (FD) factor that considers the overall demographic age distribution as a persistent long-run driving force. The FD factor in the extended DNS model improves the accuracy of the yield curve forecast by reducing both bias and variance compared to the random walk model, the DNS model, the DNS model with a simple demographic factor of a middle-to-young (MY) age ratio, and a benchmark end-shifting model. The model with an unspanned FD factor performs substantially better than the alternative models for most maturities at forecast horizons between 1 and 5 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiazi Chen & Zhiwu Hong & Linlin Niu, 2022. "Forecasting Interest Rates with Shifting Endpoints: The Role of the Demographic Age Structure," Working Papers 2022-06-25, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    • Handle: RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002606
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic distribution; Yield curve forecasting; Functional data analysis; Life cycle; Nelson-Siegel model; Semiparametric modeling.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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