Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yields Curve
AbstractWe show that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for governmentbond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields andare well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number ECARES 2013-07.
Length: 34 p.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Yield curve; Government Bonds; factor models; forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2013-02-08 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2013-02-08 (Macroeconomics)
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- Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2013. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," CeMMAP working papers CWP52/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Riccardo Costantini, 2013. "Bond returns and market expectations," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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