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WALS estimation and forecasting in factor-based dynamic models with an application to Armenia

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  • Poghosyan, K.
  • Magnus, J.R.

    (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research)

Abstract

Two model averaging approaches are used and compared in estimating and forecasting dynamic factor models, the well-known Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the recently developed weighted average least squares (WALS). Both methods propose to combine frequentist estimators using Bayesian weights. We apply our framework to the Armenian economy using quarterly data from 2000–2010, and we estimate and forecast real GDP growth and inflation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Poghosyan, K. & Magnus, J.R., 2011. "WALS estimation and forecasting in factor-based dynamic models with an application to Armenia," Discussion Paper 2011-054, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiucen:419d588e-7827-4cdd-b989-447a0a76fe8d
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    3. Magnus, Jan R. & Wan, Alan T.K. & Zhang, Xinyu, 2011. "Weighted average least squares estimation with nonspherical disturbances and an application to the Hong Kong housing market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 1331-1341, March.
    4. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    5. Giuseppe De Luca & Jan R. Magnus, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(4), pages 518-544, December.
    6. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2004. "Forecasting in dynamic factor models using Bayesian model averaging," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 550-565, December.
    7. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
    8. Jan R. Magnus & J. Durbin, 1999. "Estimation of Regression Coefficients of Interest When Other Regression Coefficients Are of No Interest," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 639-644, May.
    9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    10. Danilov, Dmitry & Magnus, J.R.Jan R., 2004. "On the harm that ignoring pretesting can cause," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 27-46, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Poghosyan, K., 2012. "Structural and reduced-form modeling and forecasting with application to Armenia," Other publications TiSEM ad1a24c3-15e6-4f04-b338-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Hoang M. Luong & Mehmet Ugur, 2022. "Does intellectual property protection deliver economic benefits? A multi‐outcome meta‐regression analysis of the evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1477-1509, December.
    3. Judith Anne Clarke, 2017. "Model Averaging OLS and 2SLS: An Application of the WALS Procedure," Econometrics Working Papers 1701, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic models; Factor analysis; Model averaging; Monte Carlo; Armenia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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