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Towards a Monthly Business Cycle Chronology for the Euro Area

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Author Info
Emanuel Mönch
Harald Uhlig

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Abstract

This paper is an exercise in dating the Euro area business cycle on a monthly basis. Using a quite flexible interpolation routine, we construct several monthly series of Euro area real GDP, and then apply the Bry-Boschan (1971) procedure. To account for the asymmetry in growth regimes and duration across business cycle phases, we propose to extend this method with a combined amplitude/phase-length criterion ruling out expansionary phases that are short and flat. Applying the extended procedure to US and European data, we are able to replicate approximately the dating decisions of the NBER and the CEPR.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2005-023.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2005
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2005-023.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2003
Date of revision: Apr 2005
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-023

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Related research
Keywords: business cycle European business cycle Euro area Bry-Boschan NBER methodology

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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