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Potential Output, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve in a Multivariate Structural Time Series Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Hahn, Franz

    (Austrian Institute for Economic Research, Vienna)

  • Ruenstler, Gerhard

    (Department of Economics, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Abstract

We propose a bivariate structural time series framework to decompose GDP and the unemployment rate into their trend, cyclical, and irregular components. We implement Okun's law by a generalised version of the common cycles restriction allowing for a phase shift between the two cycles and add a price-wage block to the system. We estimate by maximum likelihood Phillips curve-type equations, where the particular cycles enter the wage and price equations in levels though the trends are modelled as non-stationary stochastic processes. The extended models provide an improved estimate of the current cyclical position, compared to univariate estimates and the HP filter.

Suggested Citation

  • Hahn, Franz & Ruenstler, Gerhard, 1996. "Potential Output, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve in a Multivariate Structural Time Series Framework," Economics Series 33, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:33
    as

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    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/913
    File Function: First version, 1996
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Time Series Model; Trends and Cycles; Phillips Curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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