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• John Paul Martin

This paper outlines the concepts and methods used by the OECD Secretariat to derive estimates of potential output and capacity utilisation for the major seven countries. While there are many alternative definitions of potential output, the one which is currently being used by the OECD Secretariat refers to the level of output that is consistent over the medium-term with stable inflation. The paper also contrasts the OECD approach and estimates with those published recently by the IMF. Finally, it presents the results of some INTERLINK simulations designed to illustrate some of the possible effects of faster productivity and potential output growth on macroeconomic performance ...

Cet article décrit les concepts et les méthodes utilisés par le Secrétariat de l'OCDE pour estimer le potentiel de production et le taux d'utilisation des capacités des sept grands pays de l'OCDE. Le potentiel de production estimé par le Secrétariat de l'OCDE est défini comme le niveau de production compatible à moyen terme avec une inflation stable, étant entendu qu'il existe beaucoup d'autres défintions possibles. En outre, l'article compare l'approche et les estimations de l'OCDE avec celles que le FMI a publiées récemment. Enfin, quelques effects possibles d'une plus forte croissance de le productivité et du potential de production sont illustrés au moyen de simulations du modèle INTERLINK ...

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Paper provided by OECD Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 66.

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Date of creation: May 1989
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:66-en

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1. Hahn, Franz & Ruenstler, Gerhard, 1996. "Potential Output, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve in a Multivariate Structural Time Series Framework," Economics Series 33, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
2. Stabley W. Black, . "Obtstacles to Faster Growth in Transition Economies: The Mongolian Case," IMF Working Papers 01/37, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
3. Butler, L, 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Porjection Model Part 4 : A Semi- Structural Method to Estimate Potential Output : Combining Economic Theory with a Time-Series Filter," Technical Reports 77, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
4. Paul Conway & Ben Hunt, 1997. "Estimating potential output: a semi-structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
5. W. Bolt & P.J.A. van Els, 2000. "Output Gap and Inflation in the EU," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 44, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
   Other versions:
   • W. Bolt & P.J.A. van Els, 1998. "Output gap and inflation in the EU," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 550, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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