On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails
AbstractThis paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982), corresponding to multiplicative maps, whose study has recently be revived recently in physics as a mechanism of intermittent dynamics generating power law distributions. Using insights on the behavior of multiplicative stochastic processes, we demonstrate that the tails of the unconditional distribution emerging from such bubble processes follow power-laws (exhibit hyperbolic decline). More precisely, we find that rational bubbles predict a 'fat' power tail for both the bubble component and price differences with an exponent smaller than 1, implying absence of convergence of the mean. The distribution of returns is dominated by the same power-law over an extended range of large returns. Although power-law tails are a pervasive feature of empirical data, these numerical predictions are in disagreement with the usual empirical estimates of an exponent between 2 and 4. It, therefore, appears that exogenous rational bubbles are hardly reconcilable with some of the stylized facts of financial data at a very elementary level.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/9910141.
Date of creation: Oct 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Part 1, vol. 34, No. 3, 589-610 (August 2002)
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Web page: http://arxiv.org/
Other versions of this item:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
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