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The real consequences of financial stress

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  • Mittnik, Stefan
  • Semmler, Willi

Abstract

We introduce a dynamic banking-macro model, which abstains from conventional mean-reversion assumptions and in which—similar to Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2010)—adverse asset-price movements and their impact on risk premia and credit spreads can induce instabilities in the banking sector. To assess such phenomena empirically, we employ a multi-regime vector autoregression (MRVAR) approach rather than conventional linear vector autoregressions. We conduct bivariate empirical analyses, using country-specific financial-stress indices and industrial production, for the U.S., the UK and the four large euro-area countries. Our MRVAR-based impulse-response studies demonstrate that, compared to a linear specification, response profiles are dependent on the current state of the economy as well as the sign and size of shocks. Previous multi-regime-based studies, focusing solely on the regime-dependence of responses, conclude that, during a high-stress period, stress-increasing shocks have more dramatic consequences for economic activity than during low stress. Conducting size-dependent response analysis, we find that this holds only for small shocks and reverses when shocks become sufficiently large to induce immediate regime switches. Our findings also suggest that, in states of high financial stress, large negative shocks to financial-stress have sizeable positive effects on real activity and support the idea of “unconventional” monetary policy measures in cases of extreme financial stress.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1479-1499

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:1479-1499

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Banking-sector instability; Monetary policy; Nonlinear VAR; Regime dependence;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  3. Jonas Dovern & Björn van Roye, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
  5. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Threshold Regressions," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp167, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.

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