The real consequences of financial stress
AbstractWe introduce a dynamic banking-macro model, which abstains from conventional mean-reversion assumptions and in which—similar to Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2010)—adverse asset-price movements and their impact on risk premia and credit spreads can induce instabilities in the banking sector. To assess such phenomena empirically, we employ a multi-regime vector autoregression (MRVAR) approach rather than conventional linear vector autoregressions. We conduct bivariate empirical analyses, using country-specific financial-stress indices and industrial production, for the U.S., the UK and the four large euro-area countries. Our MRVAR-based impulse-response studies demonstrate that, compared to a linear specification, response profiles are dependent on the current state of the economy as well as the sign and size of shocks. Previous multi-regime-based studies, focusing solely on the regime-dependence of responses, conclude that, during a high-stress period, stress-increasing shocks have more dramatic consequences for economic activity than during low stress. Conducting size-dependent response analysis, we find that this holds only for small shocks and reverses when shocks become sufficiently large to induce immediate regime switches. Our findings also suggest that, in states of high financial stress, large negative shocks to financial-stress have sizeable positive effects on real activity and support the idea of “unconventional” monetary policy measures in cases of extreme financial stress.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc
Banking-sector instability; Monetary policy; Nonlinear VAR; Regime dependence;
Other versions of this item:
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2008.
"Financial shocks and the US business cycle,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2008-58, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003.
"Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model,"
Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
- Ehrmann , Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2001. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Research Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Ehrmann-Ellison-Valla(2003) regime dependent impulse response," Statistical Software Components RTZ00177, Boston College Department of Economics.
- John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009.
"Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy,"
0910-01, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012.
"Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Robert Tetlow & Kirstin Hubrich, 2013. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," 2013 Meeting Papers 571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Willi Semmler & Lucas Bernard, 2011.
"Boom-Bust Cycles: Leveraging, Complex Securities, and Asset Prices,"
DEGIT Conference Papers
c016_034, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007.
"Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity,"
NBER Working Papers
12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary Gorton, 2009.
"Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 567-72, May.
- Gary B. Gorton, 2009. "Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007," NBER Working Papers 14649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, 08.
- Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
- Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2008. "Asset pricing with loss aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3253-3274, October.
- Jerome L. Stein, 2011.
"The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe,"
Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 31(2), pages 199-215, Spring/Su.
- Yuliy Sannikov & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2010.
"A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector,"
2010 Meeting Papers
1114, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010.
"Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 179-207, August.
- Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro risk premium and intermediary balance sheet quantities," Staff Reports 428, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T. & Vermann, E. Katarina, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
- Björn van Roye, 2011. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area," Kiel Working Papers 1743, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2012. "Regime dependence of the fiscal multiplier," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 502-522.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Marco Del Negro, 2010. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed’s Non-Standard Policies," 2010 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 14517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
NBER Working Papers
6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Greenwald, Bruce C & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1993.
"Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114, February.
- Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Grune, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "Using dynamic programming with adaptive grid scheme for optimal control problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2427-2456, December.
- Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011.
"The real effects of financial stress in the Euro zone,"
NIPE Working Papers
12/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-17.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011.
"Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert W. Dimand, 2005. "Dimand on the Corridor of Stability," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 185-199, 01.
- Jesus Saurina, 2009. "Dynamic Provisioning," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10241, The World Bank.
- Holló, Dániel & Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Global dynamics in a model with search and matching in labor and capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1651-1679, September.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
- Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153.
- Troy Davig & Craig Hakkio, 2010. "What is the effect of financial stress on economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 35-62.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-70, July.
- repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
- Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014.
"Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2013. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Threshold Regressions," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp167, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
- Jonas Dovern & Björn van Roye, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.