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Differences in the Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro-Area: An Empirical Approach


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  • Daniel McCoy,

    (Economic and Social Research Institute)

  • McMahon, Michael

    (Trinity College, Dublin)


This paper examines the impact of interest rate changes on real economic activity for a range of European Union (EU) countries including Ireland. The objective is to compare how monetary policy changes are transmitted to output in these economies. The analysis is based on evidence prior to the establishment of the common monetary policy within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). A number of international studies over the last five years, in particular by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), have analysed how the effects of monetary policy can vary between countries. These studies have analysed most EU countries but Ireland has generally been omitted. This is due in part to the lack of the necessary quarterly national accounts’ data for output but also to the small weighting of Irish output in the euro area. This paper re-addresses the omission of Ireland by using a constructed quarterly GDP data series from 1972 to 1998. The paper, in line with previous international studies, applies a common methodology based on time series relationships and economic theory that incorporates three variables - prices, output and interest rates. This common methodology is applied to thirteen EU countries. In order to compare the responses similar data series, sample periods and an identical econometric framework are used for all countries. The transmission mechanism is the process through which monetary policy decisions are transmitted into changes in output. Economic theory tends to draw a distinction between the short and medium term when distinguishing the effects of monetary policy on the real economy. Over the medium term inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon and in terms of the real effects on output, money is considered to be neutral. In the short term, however, monetary policy is considered to have real effects. There are two important dimensions to the conduct of monetary policy to be clearly distinguished. The first is the adjustment of monetary policy instruments in reaction to changes in objective variables such as output and inflation. The second is the impact of monetary authorities’ actions on the real economy. The paper concentrates on the latter. The monetary transmission mechanism consists of several inter-linked channels, such as the interest rate or money channel, the credit channel, the exchange rate channel and the asset price channel, which can differ substantially across countries. The focus of this paper is on the aggregate effect of these different transmission channels rather than on the relative importance of each in the different EU countries. The motivation for this focus arises from the need for the real effects of monetary policy to be relatively uniform across the different EU countries in order to facilitate the smooth conduct of monetary policy in the euro-area. It is also motivated by the lack of consensus on the effects of monetary policy changes through different channels in different countries or even within a given country. The lack of consensus stems from the difficulty in disentangling time series on interest rates into parts that are due to deliberate monetary policy measures and those that are due to endogenous responses of financial markets to unobserved economic disturbances. As a result, different empirical methodologies give rise to different estimates of the role and effect of monetary policy. The results from the common specification used by the international agencies would suggest that a monetary shock resulting in higher interest rates would seem to have an implausibly large and persistent impact on output in the Irish case in comparison to other EU countries. This may point to the need for a unique econometric specification for each economy in order to capture the differences in the monetary transmission mechanism more accurately rather than something unique about the Irish economy. The consequence of this recommendation would diminish the comparability of the results, but to proceed otherwise would be ill advised. Using a modified framework shows that the effects on output from interest rate changes in the smaller, peripheral countries in the EU, such as Ireland, Portugal, Finland and Denmark are deeper than those in the larger countries. While the magnitude of effects may be similar in these groups, the duration over which they occur can differ markedly. Therefore no consistent, common grouping emerges in terms of impact and duration. There is no evidence on the basis of this paper that there is a core group of countries, with the exclusion of Ireland, forming an obvious optimum currency area with the EU.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 5/RT/00.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/00

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  1. Monticello, Carlo & Tristani, Oreste, 1999. "What does the single monetary policy do? A SVAR benchmark for the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0002, European Central Bank.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  4. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  5. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1995. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Real Economic Activity?: Why Do We Still Ask This Question?," NBER Working Papers 5212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Spencer Dale & Andrew Haldane, 1993. "Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: some sectoral estimates," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 18, Bank of England.
  7. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
  8. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
  9. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 1219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. repec:cbi:wpaper:2/rt/97 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1996. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the European Countries," Working Papers 1996-03, CEPII research center.
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Cited by:
  1. Muhammad Naveed Tahir, 2012. "Relative Importance of Monetary Transmission Channels in Inflation Targeting Emerging Economies," EcoMod2012 4092, EcoMod.
  2. Bredin, Don & O’Reilly, Gerard, 2001. "An Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.


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