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End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey

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  • M. Fatih Ekinci
  • Gazi Kabas
  • Enes Sunel

Abstract

Estimating a robust and stable trend is an important challenge for economic analysis. We compare alternative approaches by estimating the cyclical component for the real exchange rate series of Turkey. Comparison criteria is the sensitivity of the estimated cycle to additional data points. A formal test reveals that cycle values obtained with all methods change substantially upon new data arrivals. To rank the performance of the methods, additional measures underlining the comovement of real-time cycles and the cyclical values with additional data, and the magnitude of end-point bias are developed. These criteria show that an unobserved components approach, which assumes trend and cycle innovations are orthogonal, and xes the share of trend shocks on the real depreciation rate fluctuations at 10 percent, dominates alternative filtering methods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1316.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1316

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Keywords: Trend-cycle decompositions; real exchange rates; stochastic trend;

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  1. Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun & Mahmut Gunay & Bahar Sen-Dogan, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization of Turkey with Euro Area and the US : What Has Changed After 2001?," Working Papers 1215, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. M. Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013. "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Working Papers 1316, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Hulya Saygili & Mesut Saygili & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2010. "Turkiye icin Yeni Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Endeksleri," Working Papers 1012, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
  6. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  7. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  8. Aikman, David & Nelson, Benjamin & Tanaka, Misa, 2012. "Reputation, risk-taking and macroprudential policy," Bank of England working papers 462, Bank of England.
  9. Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.
  10. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  11. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  12. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013. "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions: An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(3), pages 61-71.

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