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Das "strukturelle Defizit" in der österreichischen Budgetpolitik: Berechnungsprobleme, Revisionen und wirtschaftspolitische Relevanz

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  • Philipp Heimberger

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of the „structural deficit“ in Austrian fiscal policy. In the EU’s fiscal regulation framework, the structural budget balance serves as a central control indicator for assessing the sustainability of public finances. The structural balance is an estimate that has been corrected for the effects of the business cycle and one-off effects on the headline fiscal balance. The size of the structural balance heavily depends on a macroeconomic model employed by the European Commission to estimate the so-called output gap, which is interpreted as a measure of whether an economy is overheated or underutilized. This paper discusses the most acute estimation problems: in times of high unemployment, these problems are shown to lead to systematic underestimation of the degree of slack in the Austrian economy, which implies overestimation of the structural deficit. Pro-cyclical fiscal consolidation pressure is the result of these estimation problems; and this decreases the leeway of fiscal policy-makers when it comes to pushing for public investments that could stimulate growth and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Heimberger, 2016. "Das "strukturelle Defizit" in der österreichischen Budgetpolitik: Berechnungsprobleme, Revisionen und wirtschaftspolitische Relevanz," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 42(3), pages 451-463.
    • Handle: RePEc:clr:wugarc:y:2016v:42i:3p:451
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    Österreich; Haushaltsdefizit;

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