Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

How to grow a bubble: A model of myopic adapting agents

Contents:

Author Info

  • Georges Harras
  • Didier Sornette

Abstract

We present a simple agent-based model to study the development of a bubble and the consequential crash and investigate how their proximate triggering factor might relate to their fundamental mechanism, and vice versa. Our agents invest according to their opinion on future price movements, which is based on three sources of information, (i) public information, i.e. news, (ii) information from their "friendship" network and (iii) private information. Our bounded rational agents continuously adapt their trading strategy to the current market regime by weighting each of these sources of information in their trading decision according to its recent predicting performance. We find that bubbles originate from a random lucky streak of positive news, which, due to a feedback mechanism of these news on the agents' strategies develop into a transient collective herding regime. After this self-amplified exuberance, the price has reached an unsustainable high value, being corrected by a crash, which brings the price even below its fundamental value. These ingredients provide a simple mechanism for the excess volatility documented in financial markets. Paradoxically, it is the attempt for investors to adapt to the current market regime which leads to a dramatic amplification of the price volatility. A positive feedback loop is created by the two dominating mechanisms (adaptation and imitation) which, by reinforcing each other, result in bubbles and crashes. The model offers a simple reconciliation of the two opposite (herding versus fundamental) proposals for the origin of crashes within a single framework and justifies the existence of two populations in the distribution of returns, exemplifying the concept that crashes are qualitatively different from the rest of the price moves.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0806.2989
File Function: Latest version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 0806.2989.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision: Nov 2010
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0806.2989

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. A. Christian Silva & Richard E. Prange & Victor M. Yakovenko, 2004. "Exponential distribution of financial returns at mesoscopic time lags: a new stylized fact," Papers cond-mat/0401225, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2004.
  2. Brock,W.A. & Hommes,C.H., 1998. "Rational animal spirits," Working papers 23, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
  4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
  5. D. Sornette & J. V. Andersen, 2001. "A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0104341, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2002.
  6. Brock, William A & Durlauf, Steven N, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 235-60, April.
  7. Satinover, J.B. & Sornette, D., 2007. "Illusion of control in a Brownian game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 386(1), pages 339-344.
  8. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
  9. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  10. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
  11. Bischi, Gian-Italo & Gallegati, Mauro & Gardini, Laura & Leombruni, Roberto & Palestrini, Antonio, 2006. "Herd Behavior And Nonfundamental Asset Price Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(04), pages 502-528, September.
  12. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot Money," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
  13. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2005. "Thy Neighbor's Portfolio: Word-of-Mouth Effects in the Holdings and Trades of Money Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2801-2824, December.
  14. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2004. "Minority Games: Interacting agents in financial markets," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198566403, September.
  15. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 361, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  16. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2004. "Evidence of fueling of the 2000 new economy bubble by foreign capital inflow: implications for the future of the US economy and its stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 412-440.
  17. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1138, 06.
  18. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  19. J. B. Satinover & D. Sornette, 2009. "Illusory versus genuine control in agent-based games," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 357-367, February.
  20. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1998. "Stock market crashes are outliers," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 141-143, January.
  21. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  22. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
  23. Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 807-837, 04.
  24. Marie Christine Adam & Ariane Szafarz, 1992. "Speculative Bubbles and Financial Markets," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/689, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  25. Pietro Veronesi, . "How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?," CRSP working papers 462, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  26. Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998. "Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  27. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Is there a real-estate bubble in the US?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 297-308.
  28. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May.
  29. Sandroni, Alvaro, 1998. "Learning, Rare Events, and Recurrent Market Crashes in Frictionless Economies without Intrinsic Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-18, September.
  30. Topol, Richard, 1991. "Bubbles and Volatility of Stock Prices: Effect of Mimetic Contagion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 786-800, July.
  31. B. M. Roehner & D. Sornette, 2000. ""Thermometers" of Speculative Frenzy," Papers cond-mat/0001353, arXiv.org.
  32. Orlean, Andre, 1995. "Bayesian interactions and collective dynamics of opinion: Herd behavior and mimetic contagion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 257-274, October.
  33. Veldkamp, Laura L., 2005. "Slow boom, sudden crash," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 230-257, October.
  34. Follmer, Hans, 1974. "Random economies with many interacting agents," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 51-62, March.
  35. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2001. "Quantifying Stock Price Response to Demand Fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/0106657, arXiv.org.
  36. Wyart, Matthieu & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2007. "Self-referential behaviour, overreaction and conventions in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, May.
  37. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
  38. Silva, A. Christian & Prange, Richard E. & Yakovenko, Victor M., 2004. "Exponential distribution of financial returns at mesoscopic time lags: a new stylized fact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 227-235.
  39. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
  40. Reshmaan N. Hussam & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2008. "Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 924-37, June.
  41. Didier SORNETTE, . "Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-36, Swiss Finance Institute.
  42. Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. T. Kaizoji & M. Leiss & A. Saichev & D. Sornette, 2011. "Super-exponential endogenous bubbles in an equilibrium model of rational and noise traders," Papers 1109.4726, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
  2. D. Sornette, 2014. "Physics and Financial Economics (1776-2014): Puzzles, Ising and Agent-Based models," Papers 1404.0243, arXiv.org.
  3. Krause, Sebastian M. & Bornholdt, Stefan, 2013. "Spin models as microfoundation of macroscopic market models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(18), pages 4048-4054.
  4. Mark Setterfield & Bill Gibson, 2013. "Real and financial crises: A multi-agent approach," Working Papers 1309, Trinity College, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2014.
  5. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges," Papers 1209.0453, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2012.
  6. Liudmila G. Egorova, 2014. "The Effectiveness Of Different Trading Strategies For Price-Takers," HSE Working papers WP BRP 29/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0806.2989. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.