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V. V. Chari
Patrick Kehoe

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Abstract

The conventional wisdom is that capital flows between developing countries and developed countries are more volatile than can be justified by fundamentals. In this paper we construct a simple model in which frictions in international financial markets in combination with standard debt-default problems lead to volatile capital flows. These flows act as tests of fire for borrowing countries. If a country survives this test, its reputation is enhanced and future capital flows become less volatile. Failing this test is associated with a loss of reputation and a decline in the amount of capital flows.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6007.

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Date of creation: Apr 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6007

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F0 - International Economics - - General
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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  1. Canadian Macro Study Group
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-85, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises - The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
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  3. Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," NBER Working Papers 5563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Bhattacharya, Sudipto & Detragiache, Enrica, 1994. " The Role of Multilateral Institutions in the Market for Sovereign Debt," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 96(4), pages 515-29.
  11. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2002. "On the robustness of herds," Working Papers 622, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andrew Atkeson & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 1996. "The balance of payments and borrowing constraints: an alternative view of the Mexican crisis," Staff Report 212, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "On the Fundamentals of Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks," NBER Working Papers 7554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Cole, Harold L & Dow, James & English, William B, 1995. "Default, Settlement, and Signalling: Lending Resumption in a Reputational Model of Sovereign Debt," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(2), pages 365-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modelling," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1260, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  19. repec:fth:coluec:602 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
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  21. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2001. "A Model Of Financial Crises In Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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