IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/macfem/v15y2022i2p140-159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation, output and unemployment trade-offs in Sub-Saharan Africa countries

Author

Listed:
  • Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme

Abstract

This paper examines the behaviour of inflation, output, and unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries and shows that the predictions of the Phillips curve and Okun’s law are valid in the short run. In the long run however, the Okun’s law coefficient declines greatly and turns positive while the Phillips curve phenomenon gravitates towards the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) but with a negative relationship. The evidence echoes Friedman’s proposition of a temporary trade-off between inflation and unemployment but no permanent trade-off. The output-unemployment relationship suggests that the long-term growth revival in SSA was neither inclusive nor pro-poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "Inflation, output and unemployment trade-offs in Sub-Saharan Africa countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 140-159, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:15:y:2022:i:2:p:140-159
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2021.1901347
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17520843.2021.1901347
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/17520843.2021.1901347?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hutchison, M M & Walsh, C E, 1998. "The Output-Inflation Tradeoff and Central Bank Reform: Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 703-725, May.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2007. "Change of regime and Phillips curve stability: The case of Spain, 1964-2002," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 453-462.
    4. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 9, pages 291-372, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Hubert Gabrisch & Herbert Buscher, 2006. "The Relationship between Unemployment and Output in Post-communist Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 261-276.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    7. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "Is There a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, April.
    8. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    9. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    12. Mr. Chorng-Huey Wong & Mr. Eric V. Clifton & Mr. Gene L. Leon, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off," IMF Working Papers 2001/166, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Robert E. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 2018. "Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 121-134, Winter.
    14. Freeman, Donald G, 2001. "Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 511-523, October.
    15. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 173-220.
    17. Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
    18. Bhattarai, Keshab, 2016. "Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 93-103.
    19. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sim, Chong Yang, 2021. "A Review on Output-Inflation Trade-off Based on New Classical and New Keynesian Theories," MPRA Paper 105767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Danlami Mujitapha & Norashida Othman & Rishan Sampath Hewage & Jaafar Pyeman & Khairul Aidah Samah, 2023. "A Verification of Okun’s Law: The Case of Southeast Asian Countries," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 15(1), pages 54-65.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    2. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    3. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    4. Bhavesh Salunkhe & Anuradha Patnaik, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in India: A New Keynesian Phillips Curve Perspective," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 8(2), pages 144-179, December.
    5. Łukasz Arendt, 2005. "Próba oszacowania NAIRU dla Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 1-23.
    6. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kose, M. Ayhan & Matsuoka, Hideaki & Panizza, Ugo & Vorisek, Dana, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    11. Bhattarai, Keshab, 2016. "Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 93-103.
    12. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri, 2021. "Nonlinear models of the Phillips curve," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
    13. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    14. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
    15. Nymoen, Ragnar & Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind, 2012. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-263.
    16. Michele Fratianni & Marco Gallegati & Federico Giri, 2019. "Mr Phillips and the medium-run: temporal instability vs. frequency stability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 155, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    17. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    18. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    19. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    20. Maarten Dossche, 2009. "Understanding Inflation Dynamics.Where Do We Stand?," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(2), pages 209-227.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:15:y:2022:i:2:p:140-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.