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Did Norway Gain from the 1979-85 Oil Price Shock?

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    Abstract

    Macroeconomic effects of the high oil prices in the period 1979-85 for the Norwegian economy are considered. An alternative low oil price scenario is developed and effects of the oil shock are calculated as the deviation between actual history and the counterfactual base. International effects based on a world model are fed into a domestic model to analyse consequences for the Norwegian economy. Without imposing any changes in fiscal policies, negative effects from lower foreign demand and higher interest rates are dominating. However, as a major oil exporting country, we argue that the high oil prices spurred a substantial increase in Norwegian public spending. Effects of a more expansionary fiscal policy, based on a relatively conservative spending strategy, are shown to more than outweigh the negative initial impact on GDP. Possible outcomes for the business cycle development are also studied

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    File URL: http://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp210.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 210.

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    Date of creation: Feb 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:210

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    Related research

    Keywords: Oil price shocks; Macro-econometric models; Fiscal policy;

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    2. John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1982. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," School of Economics Working Papers 1982-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    3. Favero, C.A. & Pesaran, M.H., 1992. "Oil Investment in the North Sea," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9204, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Ray Barrell & Knut A. Magnussen, 1996. "Counterfactual Analyses of Oil Price Shocks using a World Model," Discussion Papers 177, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
    5. Biorn, Erik & Jensen, Morten & Reymert, Morten, 1987. "KVARTS - a quarterly model of the Norwegian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 77-109, January.
    6. Michael R. Darby, 1981. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," UCLA Economics Working Papers 228, UCLA Department of Economics.
    7. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel & Hurst, Ian, 1996. "German Monetary Union: An historical counterfactual analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 499-518, October.
    8. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 19-36.
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