Black Market And Official Exchange Rates:Long-Run Equilibrium And Short-Run Dynamics
AbstractThis paper provides further empirical results on the relationship between black market and official exchange rates in six emerging economies (Iran, India, Indonesia, Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand). First, it applies both time series techniques and heterogeneous panel methods to test for the existence of a long-run relation between these two types of exchange rates. Second, it tests formally the validity of the proportionality restriction implying a constant black-market premium. Third, in addition to the long-run equilibrium, it also analyses the short-run dynamic responses of both markets to shocks. Evidence of market inefficiency and incomplete (or longlived) reversion to long-run equilibrium is found. This implies that financial managers can only partially reduce the exchange rate risk, whilst monetary authorities can effectively pursue their policy objectives by imposing foreign exchange or direct controls.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 05-04.
Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
Date of revision:
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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK
Other versions of this item:
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2008. "Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long-run Equilibrium and Short-run Dynamics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 401-412, 08.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2006. "Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long-Run Equilibrium and Short-Run Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 1851, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2005. "Black Market And Official Exchange Rates:Long-Run Equilibrium And Short-Run Dynamics," Public Policy Discussion Papers 05-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- NEP-ALL-2005-03-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2005-03-20 (International Finance)
- NEP-REG-2005-03-20 (Regulation)
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