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Does purchasing power parity hold in emerging markets? Evidence from a panel of black market exchange rates

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Author Info

  • Mario Cerrato

    (Centre for International Capital Markets, London Metropolitan University, UK)

  • Nicholas Sarantis

    (Centre for International Capital Markets, London Metropolitan University, UK)

Abstract

We examine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using a unique panel of monthly data on black market exchange rates for 34 emerging market economies. We apply a large number of recent heterogeneous panel unit root and cointegration tests. Panel unit root tests reject mean reversion in black market real exchange rates for most (but not all) emerging market economies. On the other hand, all panel cointegration tests provide strong evidence of cointegration between the nominal black market exchange rate and domestic and foreign prices for both individual countries and the full panel. Since we believe that the findings from unit root tests may be affected by the imposition of the joint symmetry and proportionality restriction due to trade restrictions and measurement errors, we test for such a restriction using likelihood ratio tests and find that it is strongly rejected. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.318
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 427-444

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:4:p:427-444

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Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

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References

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  1. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  2. Coakley, Jerry & Flood, Robert P. & Fuertes, Ana M. & Taylor, Mark P., 2005. "Purchasing power parity and the theory of general relativity: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 293-316, March.
  3. Taylor, Alan M & Taylor, Mark P, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
  5. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 261-292, October.
  8. Hamid Baghestani, 1997. "Purchasing power parity in the presence of foreign exchange black markets: the case of India," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 1147-1154.
  9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  10. Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang, 1997. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data," Econometrics 9703001, EconWPA.
  11. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  12. Larsson, Rolf & Lyhagen, Johan & Löthgren, Mickael, 1998. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 250, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 27 Aug 1998.
  13. David Harris & Steve Leybourne & Brendan McCabe, 2003. "Panel Stationarity Tests with Cross-sectional Dependence," Econometrics 0311005, EconWPA.
  14. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Phylaktis, Kate & Girardin, Eric, 2001. "Foreign exchange markets in transition economies: China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 215-235, February.
  16. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  17. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2009. "3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-07, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2005. "Black Market And Official Exchange Rates:Long-Run Equilibrium And Short-Run Dynamics," Public Policy Discussion Papers 05-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  3. Alper ASLAN, 2010. "The validity of PPP: evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for ASEAN countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1433-1443.
  4. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Emma García, . "Purchasing Power Parity Revisited," Working Papers 2003-20, FEDEA.

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