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A Note on Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Parallel and Official Exchange Rates: The Case of Cambodia

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  • Sovannroeun Samreth

    ()
    (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) and Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University)

Abstract

By employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, this paper presents the results of a new empirical study on short-run and long-run relationships between the Cambodian parallel and the official exchange rates. Tests to confirm the stability of the estimated model are conducted. The causality relationships between the parallel and official exchange rates are also examined, by applying the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach. From the empirical results, we find that there exists a stable long-run relationship between the two exchange rates in Cambodia. Moreover, the causality tests provide the evidence of the mutual directions between them.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1044-1053

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00006

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Keywords: Parallel Exchange Rate; Official Exchange Rate; Cambodia; ARDL;

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  1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Long-run nature of the relationship between the black market and the official exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 319-327, September.
  2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  3. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September.
  4. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-98, May.
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  6. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.
  7. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2007. "The Relationship Between The Black Market And Official Exchange Rates: An Examination Of Long-Run Dynamics In India," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 283-294, 05.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  9. Michael Moore & Kate Phylaktis, 2000. "Black and official exchange rates in the Pacific Basin: some tests of dynamic behaviour," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 361-369.
  10. Baghestani, Hamid & Noer, John, 1993. "Cointegration analysis of the black market and official exchange rates in India," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 709-721.
  11. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  12. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 693-696.
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