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Prueba de causalidad y determinación de la NAIRU

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  • Bellod Redondo, José Francisco

    (Universidad de Murcia, España)

Abstract

In this paper we study the NAIRU conception and its determination for Spanish economy since 1976 to 1997. It’s a very important conception in actual Macroeconomics but there are strong controversies about it. We have linked it with other important conception –causality- and we have applied the Granger Causality test and Sims Causality test to NAIRU series trying to clarificate that controversies. Main results point that there isn’t causal relationship from NAIRU to inflation acceleration.// En este artículo estudiamos el concepto de NAIRU y su determinación para la economía española en el periodo 1976-1997. Se trata de un concepto de gran importancia en la macroeconomía actual, aunque existen grandes controversias acerca de su viabilidad. Hemos ligado este concepto a otro de no menos importancia- la causalidad- y para ello hemos aplicado las pruebas de causalidad de Granger y de Sims a las series de la NAIRU previamente determinadas con el fin de esclarecer tales controversias. Los resultados apuntan en la dirección de inexistencia de relación causal entre la NAIRU y la aceleración de la inflación.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXVI (4) (1999)
Issue (Month): 264 (octubre-diciembre)
Pages: 663-692

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:66:y:1999:i:264:p:663-692

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References

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  1. Mayer, Thomas, 1980. "Economics as a Hard Science: Realistic Goal or Wishful Thinking?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 165-78, April.
  2. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
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  4. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
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  7. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-12.
  8. Ana R. de Lamo & Juan J. Dolado, 1993. "Un modelo del mercado de trabajo y la restricción de oferta en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(1), pages 87-118, January.
  9. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
  10. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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Cited by:
  1. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "La función de producción de Cobb-Douglas y la economía española," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 12, pages 9-38.
  2. Dionisio Ramirez & Gabriel Rodr¨ªguez, 2014. "Do Labor Reforms in Spain Have an Effect on the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate?," International Journal of Social Science Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 105-120, January.
  3. Inés P. Murillo & Carlos Usabiaga, . "Estimaciones De La Tasa De Paro De Equilibrio De La Economía Española A Partir De La Ley De Okun," Working Papers 15-03 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.

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