IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/soa/wpaper/225.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness

Author

Listed:
  • Sophie van Huellen

    (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)

  • Duo Qin

    (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)

  • Shan Lu

    (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, China PR.)

  • Huiwen Wang

    (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, China PR.)

  • Qingchao Wang

    (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)

  • Thanos Moraitis

    (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK)

Abstract

We apply a novel model-based approach to constructing composite international financial indices (CIFIs) as measures of opportunity cost effects that arise due to openness in money demand models. These indices are tested on the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan Province of China (TPC), two economies which differ substantially in size and degree of financial openness. Results show that a) stable money demand equations can be identified if accounting for foreign opportunity costs through CIFIs, b) the monetary policy intervention in the PRC over the global financial crisis period temporarily mitigated disequilibrating foreign shocks to money demand, c) CIFIs capture opportunity costs due to openness more adequately than commonly used US interest rates and d) CIFI construction provides valuable insights into the channels through which foreign financial markets affect domestic money demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Sophie van Huellen & Duo Qin & Shan Lu & Huiwen Wang & Qingchao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2019. "Modelling Opportunity Cost Effects in Money Demand due to Openness," Working Papers 225, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
  • Handle: RePEc:soa:wpaper:225
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.soas.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-10/economics-wp225.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-245, April.
    2. Makram El-Shagi & Yizhuang Zheng, 2022. "Money Demand in China: A Meta Study," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(1), pages 145-163, January.
    3. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Mr. Subramanian S Sriram, 1999. "Survey of Literature on Demand for Money: Theoretical and Empirical Work with Special Reference to Error-Correction Models," IMF Working Papers 1999/064, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Yuanquan Chen & Richard Werner, 2011. "The role of monetary aggregates in Chinese monetary policy implementation," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 464-488.
    6. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:26:y:2011:i:66:p:135-182 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-192, Summer.
    8. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
    9. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: its Achilles heel and what to do about it," BIS Working Papers 456, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1996. "Real stock prices and the long-run money demand function: evidence from Canada and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, February.
    11. A. C. Arize, 1994. "An Econometric Analysis of Money Demand in Taiwan, 1950–1989," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 38(1), pages 27-35, March.
    12. Wu, Chung-Shu & Lin, Jin-Lung & Tiao, George C. & Cho, David D., 2005. "Is money demand in Taiwan stable?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 327-346, March.
    13. Herman Wold, 1980. "Model Construction and Evaluation When Theoretical Knowledge Is Scarce," NBER Chapters, in: Evaluation of Econometric Models, pages 47-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Miao Han, 2012. "The People's Bank of China during the global financial crisis: policy responses and beyond," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 361-390, August.
    15. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    16. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-2, May.
    17. Claudio Borio, 2013. "The Great Financial Crisis: Setting priorities for new statistics," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(3-4), pages 306-317, July.
    18. David Vines & Samuel Wills, 2018. "The rebuilding macroeconomic theory project: an analytical assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 1-42.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hendry, David F. & Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Co-Breaking: Recent Advances and a Synopsis of the Literature," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 33-51, January.
    21. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohd, Siti Hamizah & Mansur M. Masih, A., 2009. "The stability of money demand in China: Evidence from the ARDL model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 231-244, September.
    22. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 205-224, May.
    23. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Berkelmans, Leon & Kelly, Gerard & Sadeghian, Dena, 2016. "Chinese monetary policy and the banking system," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 38-55.
    25. Chen-Huan Shieh & Shou-Hsiang Liu & Chung-Ching Lee, 2017. "How Stable is the Money Demand in Taiwan?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(5), pages 54-64, 05-2017.
    26. Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2011. "The bank lending channel: lessons from the crisis [Financial intermediaries and monetary economics]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 135-182.
    27. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    28. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    29. Mr. Joaquim Vieira Ferreira Levy & Mr. Alessandro Calza & Mr. Dieter Gerdesmeier, 2001. "Euro Area Money Demand: Measuring the Opportunity Costs Appropriately," IMF Working Papers 2001/179, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Robinson,, 2010. "Developing the Third World," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521131506.
    31. Charrad, Malika & Ghazzali, Nadia & Boiteau, Véronique & Niknafs, Azam, 2014. "NbClust: An R Package for Determining the Relevant Number of Clusters in a Data Set," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 61(i06).
    32. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration tests of a long-run relation between money demand and the effective exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 107-114, February.
    34. Abdur Chowdhury, 1995. "The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 131-144, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duo Qin & Qingchao Wang, 2016. "Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA," Working Papers 201, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    2. Ahmad Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon, 2015. "Demand for broad money in Singapore: does wealth matter?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 557-573, July.
    3. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Frauke Dobnik, 2013. "Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-113, August.
    5. Frauke Dobnik, 2011. "OLong-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers 0237, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Kumar, Saten, 2011. "Financial reforms and money demand: Evidence from 20 developing countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 323-334, September.
    7. Vittorio Daniele & Pasquale Foresti & Oreste Napolitano, 2017. "The stability of money demand in the long-run: Italy 1861–2011," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(2), pages 217-244, May.
    8. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Padhan, Hemachandra & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Understanding the time-frequency dynamics of money demand, oil prices and macroeconomic variables: The case of India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. B Bhaskara Rao & Rup Singh, 2005. "A Cointegration And Error Correction Approach To Demand For Money In Fiji: 1971-2002," Macroeconomics 0511012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0237 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dobnik, Frauke, 2011. "Long-run Money Demand in OECD Countries – Cross-Member Cointegration," Ruhr Economic Papers 237, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Andrej Sokol & Michael Kumhof & Marco Pinchetti & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2023. "CBDC policies in open economies," BIS Working Papers 1086, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    14. Pateiro-Rodríguez, Carlos & Freire-Seoane, María Jesús & López-Bermúdez, Beatriz & Pateiro-López, Carlos, 2020. "Análisis de la tendencia a la liquidez del agregado monetario M3 en la eurozona: 1997-2018," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 87(345), pages 171-201, enero-mar.
    15. Francesco Saraceno & Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "How can it work? On the impact of quantitative easing in the Eurozone," DEM Working Papers 2015/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    16. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    17. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Françoise Drumetz & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2012. "The Money Demand Function For The Euro Area: Some Empirical Evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 377-392, July.
    18. Rup Singh & Saten Kumar, 2010. "Some empirical evidence on the demand for money in the Pacific Island countries," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(3), pages 211-222, August.
    19. César Carrera, 2016. "Long-run Money Demand in Latin American Countries: A Nonstationary Panel Data Approach," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 121-152, January-j.
    20. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    21. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    money demand; opportunity cost; open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:soa:wpaper:225. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chandni Dwarkasing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desoauk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.