The Real Consequences of Financial Stress
AbstractWe introduce a dynamic banking–macro model, which abstains from conventional mean– reversion assumptions and in which—similar to Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2010)—adverse asset–price movements and their impact on risk premia and credit spreads can induce instabilities in the banking sector. To assess such phenomena empirically, we employ a multi–regime vector autoregression (MRVAR) approach rather than conventional linear vector autoregressions. We conduct bivariate empirical analyses, using country–specific financial–stress indices and industrial production, for the U.S., the UK and the four large euro–area countries. Our MRVAR–based impulse–response studies demonstrate that, compared to a linear specification, response profiles are dependent on the current state of the economy as well as the sign and size of shocks. Previous multi–regime–based studies, focusing solely on the regime–dependence of responses, conclude that, during a high–stress period, stress–increasing shocks have more dramatic consequences for economic activity than during low stress. Conducting size–dependent response analysis, we find that this holds only for small shocks and reverses when shocks become sufficiently large to induce immediate regime switches. Our findings also suggest that, in states of high financial stress, large negative shocks to financial–stress have sizeable positive effects on real activity and support the idea of “unconventional” monetary policy measures in cases of extreme financial stress.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2013-011.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
banking–sector instability; financial stress; monetary policy; nonlinear VAR; regime dependence;
Other versions of this item:
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2013-03-16 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2013-03-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2013-03-16 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009.
"Credit spreads and monetary policy,"
385, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Robert W. Dimand, 2005. "Dimand on the Corridor of Stability," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 185-199, 01.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007.
"Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity,"
NBER Working Papers
12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012.
"Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.
- Willi Semmler & Lucas Bernard, 2011. "Boom-Bust Cycles: Leveraging, Complex Securities, and Asset Prices," DEGIT Conference Papers c016_034, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Sushanta K. Mallick & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011.
"The real effects of financial stress in the Euro zone,"
NIPE Working Papers
12/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "The real effects of financial stress in the Eurozone," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-17.
- Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
- Jerome L. Stein, 2011.
"The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3348, CESifo Group Munich.
- Jerome L. Stein, 2011. "The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 31(2), pages 199-215, Spring/Su.
- Jerome L. Stein, 2011. "The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(4), pages 44-51, December.
- Charles Nolan & Christoph Thoenissen, 2008.
"Financial shocks and the US business cycle,"
CDMA Working Paper Series
200810, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012.
"Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003.
"Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model,"
Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
- Ehrmann , Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2001. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Research Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Ehrmann-Ellison-Valla(2003) regime dependent impulse response," Statistical Software Components RTZ00177, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
- John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
- Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T. & Vermann, E. Katarina, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
NBER Working Papers
6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010.
"Macro risk premium and intermediary balance sheet quantities,"
428, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 179-207, August.
- John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, 08.
- Holló, Dániel & Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
- repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
- Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
- Yuliy Sannikov & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2010.
"A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector,"
2010 Meeting Papers
1114, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Gary Gorton, 2009.
"Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 567-72, May.
- Gary B. Gorton, 2009. "Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007," NBER Working Papers 14649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Tetlow & Kirstin Hubrich, 2013.
"Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises,"
2013 Meeting Papers
571, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kirstin Hubrich & Robert J. Tetlow, 2012. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: the transmission of crises," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-82, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Björn van Roye, 2011. "Financial stress and economic activity in Germany and the Euro Area," Kiel Working Papers 1743, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Troy Davig & Craig Hakkio, 2010. "What is the effect of financial stress on economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 35-62.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Zadrozny, Peter A, 1993. "Asymptotic Distributions of Impulse Responses, Step Responses, and Variance Decompositions of Estimated Linear Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 857-70, July.
- Grune, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2004. "Using dynamic programming with adaptive grid scheme for optimal control problems in economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2427-2456, December.
- Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 14517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grüne, Lars & Semmler, Willi, 2008. "Asset pricing with loss aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3253-3274, October.
- Gorton, Gary B., 2010. "Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199734153.
- Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Global dynamics in a model with search and matching in labor and capital markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1651-1679, September.
- Jesus Saurina, 2009. "Dynamic Provisioning," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10241, The World Bank.
- Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993.
"Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Greenwald, Bruce C & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114, February.
- Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
- Mittnik, Stefan & Semmler, Willi, 2012. "Regime dependence of the fiscal multiplier," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 502-522.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Marco Del Negro, 2010. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed’s Non-Standard Policies," 2010 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Jonas Dovern & Björn van Roye, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2013. "How many factors and shocks cause financial stress?," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-100, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Schleer, Frauke & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial sector-output dynamics in the euro area: Non-linearities reconsidered," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-068 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RDC-Team).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.