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Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-varying Dynamic Factor Model

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  • Mumtaz, Haroon
  • Surico, Paolo

Abstract

Several industrialised countries have had a similar inflation experience in the past 30 years, with inflation high and volatile in the 1970s and the 1980s but low and stable in the most recent period. We explore the dynamics of inflation in these countries via a time-varying factor model. This statistical model is used to describe movements in inflation that are idiosyncratic or country specific and those that are common across countries. In addition, we investigate how comovement has varied across the sample period. Our results indicate that there has been a decline in the level, persistence and volatility of inflation across our sample of industrialised countries. In addition, there has been a change in the degree of comovement, with the level and persistence of national inflation rates moving more closely together since the mid-1980s.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6767.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6767

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Keywords: factor model; Low inflation; monetary policy; time variation;

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  1. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Espen Henriksen & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Sustek, . "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," Discussion Papers 11/01, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  2. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "The world is not enough! Small open economies and regional dependence," Working Paper 2011/16, Norges Bank.
  3. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the great moderation era: New evidence from G10 countries," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-56, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Polito, Vito & Spencer, Peter, 2011. "UK Macroeconomic Volatility and the Welfare Costs of Inflation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  5. Chiu, Adrian & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Did output gap measurement improve over time?," Discussion Papers 36, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  6. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2012. "Are emerging market indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 321-331.
  7. Felices, Guillermo & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2011. "Are EME indicators of vulnerability to financial crises decoupling from global factors?," Bank of England working papers 410, Bank of England.
  8. Özer Karagedikli & Haroon Mumtaz & Misa Tanaka, 2010. "All together now: Do international factors explain relative price co-movements?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  9. Mumtaz, Haroon & Zabczyk, Pawel & Ellis, Colin, 2011. "What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 1320, European Central Bank.
  10. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Is inflation an international phenomenon?," Working Papers 2008-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2009. "The global dimension of inflation - evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 1011, European Central Bank.
  12. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
  13. Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2013. "Global and regional business cycles. Shocks and propagations," Working Paper 2013/08, Norges Bank.
  14. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  15. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Structural Breaks in the International Transmission of Inflation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 119, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  16. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.

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