Globalization and Inflation: Structural Evidence from a Time Varying VAR Approach
AbstractUnder the Globalization Hypothesis for inflation, as globalization increases, global economic slack should progressively replace the domestic gap in driving inflation. In order to assess the empirical support for this theoretical prediction, we use impulse response functions of inflation to domestic and foreign output gap shocks from a TV-VAR model estimated for eighteen countries. The main results of the analysis are twofold: First, the structural results show that global slack affects the dynamics of inflation in many countries, yet these effects do not get stronger over time. Second, a panel analysis that exploits the cross-section characteristics of the response functions shows that globalization, measured in terms of openness and business cycles integration, is positively related to the effects of global slack on inflation. The degree of openness of a country and its economic integration into the global economy are complementary rather than overlaid forces.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 13-20.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
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Globalization; Inflation; Time-variation; VAR;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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