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Global slack and domestic inflation rates: a structural investigation for G-7 countries

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  • Fabio Milani

Abstract

Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of "global," rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves. This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of global output in determining domestic inflation rates by estimating a structural model for a sample of G-7 economies. The model can capture the potential effects of global output fluctuations on both the aggregate supply and the aggregate demand relations in the economy and it is estimated using full-information Bayesian methods. The empirical results reveal a significant effect of global output on aggregate demand in most countries. Through this channel, global economic conditions can indirectly affect inflation. The results, instead, do not seem to provide evidence in favor of altering domestic Phillips curves to include global slack as an additional driving variable for inflation.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 33.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:33

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Keywords: Globalization ; Inflation (Finance) ; Group of Seven countries ; Monetary policy ; Banks and banking; Central ; Phillips curve;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2011. "Globalisation effect on inflation in the great moderation era: new evidence from G10 countries," MPRA Paper 32994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Gregor Schwerhoff & Mouhamadou Sy, 2013. "The non-monetary side of the global disinflation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564957, HAL.
  3. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?," Working Papers 091001, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  4. Dungey, Mardi & Osborne, Denise, 2013. "International Transmissions to Australia: The Roles of the US and Euro Area," Working Papers 17208, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 16 Oct 2013.
  5. Fabio Milani, 2009. "The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation," Working Papers 080920, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

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