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Globalization and Inflation-Output Tradeoffs

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  • Assaf Razin
  • Prakash Loungani

Abstract

We demonstrate how capital account and trade account liberalizations help reduce inefficiencies associated with the fluctuations in the output gap, relative to the inefficiencies associated with the fluctuations in inflation. With capital account liberalization the representative household is able to smooth fluctuations in consumption, and thus becomes relatively insensitive to fluctuations in the output gap. With trade liberalization the economy tends to specialize in production but not in consumption. The correlation between fluctuations in the output gap and aggregate consumption is therefore weakened by trade openness; hence a smaller weight on the output gap in the utility-based loss function, compared to the closed economy situations.A key implication of the theory is that globalization forces could induce monetary authorities, to put a greater emphasis on reducing the inflation rate than on narrowing the output gaps. We provide a re- interpretation of the evidence on the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio which supports the prediction of the theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11641.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Publication status: published as NBER International Macro Annual, MIT Press, May 2007.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11641

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  1. Loungani, Prakash & Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2001. "Capital mobility and the output-inflation tradeoff," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 255-274, February.
  2. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764, October.
  3. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. David Romer, 1998. "A New Assessment Of Openness And Inflation: Reply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 649-652, May.
  5. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19950, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 2001. "The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve: Closed Economy vs. Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
  8. Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-79, April.
  9. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November.
  10. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
  12. Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Should Capital Controls be Banished?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 89-142.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Fabio Milani, 2009. "The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation," Working Papers 080920, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  2. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Global Slack and Domestic Inflation Rates: A Structural Investigation for G-7 Countries," Working Papers 080919, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  3. Gaiotti, Eugenio, 2008. "Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices," MPRA Paper 8389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ernst Glatzer & Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24–43.
  5. Bohl , Martin T & Mayes , David G & Siklos, Pierre L, 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.
  6. Sandra Eickmeier & Katharina Pijnenburg, 2013. "The Global Dimension of Inflation – Evidence from Factor-Augmented Phillips Curves," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 103-122, 02.
  7. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "International Adjustment in the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Kiel Working Papers 1345, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Has globalization transformed U.S. macroeconomic dynamics?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 32, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  9. Milani, Fabio, 2009. "Does global slack matter more than domestic slack in determining U.S. inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 147-151, March.
  10. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2010. "Commentary: Has Globalization Changed the Phillips Curve? Firm-Level Evidence on the Effect of Activity on Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 51-84, March.
  11. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Bowdler, Christopher & Nunziata, Luca, 2010. "Labor market structures and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 816-826, September.
  13. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
  14. Ernest Gnan & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2006. "Globalization, Inflation and Monetary Policy," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 37–54.
  15. Cavelaars, Paul, 2009. "Does globalisation discipline monetary policymakers?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 392-405, April.

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