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Globalization and Inflation-Output Tradeoffs

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  • Assaf Razin
  • Prakash Loungani

Abstract

We demonstrate how capital account and trade account liberalizations help reduce inefficiencies associated with the fluctuations in the output gap, relative to the inefficiencies associated with the fluctuations in inflation. With capital account liberalization the representative household is able to smooth fluctuations in consumption, and thus becomes relatively insensitive to fluctuations in the output gap. With trade liberalization the economy tends to specialize in production but not in consumption. The correlation between fluctuations in the output gap and aggregate consumption is therefore weakened by trade openness; hence a smaller weight on the output gap in the utility-based loss function, compared to the closed economy situations.A key implication of the theory is that globalization forces could induce monetary authorities, to put a greater emphasis on reducing the inflation rate than on narrowing the output gaps. We provide a re- interpretation of the evidence on the effect of openness on the sacrifice ratio which supports the prediction of the theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11641.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Publication status: published as Assaf Razin, Prakash Loungani. "Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," in Jeffrey Frankel and Christopher Pissarides, editors, "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005" MIT Press (2007)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11641

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  1. Luca Benati, 2004. "Evolving post-World War II UK economic performance," Bank of England working papers 232, Bank of England.
  2. Loungani, Prakash & Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 1997. "Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," CEPR Discussion Papers 1577, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  4. Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Should Capital Controls be Banished?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1), pages 89-142.
  5. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-79, April.
  7. David Romer, 1998. "A New Assessment Of Openness And Inflation: Reply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 649-652, May.
  8. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
  9. Assaf Razin & Chi-Wa Yuen, 2001. "The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve: Closed Economy vs. Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bianca De Paoli, 2004. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19950, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno, 2003. "Price Stability in Open Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 743-764.
  12. Chen, Natalie & Imbs, Jean & Scott, Andrew, 2004. "Competition, Globalization and the Decline of Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2008. "Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 676, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Global slack and domestic inflation rates: a structural investigation for G-7 countries," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Milani, Fabio, 2012. "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 204-229, April.
  4. Eugenio Gaiotti, 2010. "Commentary: Has Globalization Changed the Phillips Curve? Firm-Level Evidence on the Effect of Activity on Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 51-84, March.
  5. Bohl , Martin T & Mayes , David G & Siklos, Pierre L, 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.
  6. Bowdler, Christopher & Nunziata, Luca, 2010. "Labor market structures and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 816-826, September.
  7. Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Gnan, Ernest, 2006. "Globalization, Inflation and Monetary Policy," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 37–54.
  8. Fabio Milani, 2009. "The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation," Working Papers 080920, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  9. Gnan, Ernest & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Glatzer, Ernst, 2006. "Globalization, Import Prices and Producer Prices in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 24–43.
  10. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Does Global Slack Matter More than Domestic Slack in Determining U.S. Inflation?," Working Papers 080910, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  11. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "International Adjustment in the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Kiel Working Papers 1345, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  12. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
  13. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2009. "The global dimension of inflation - evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 1011, European Central Bank.
  14. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  15. Forte, Antonio, 2009. "The stability of the inflation rate in the Euro area: the role of Globalization and labour market," MPRA Paper 16587, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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