Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Fabio Milani

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)

Abstract

Recent research has suggested that globalization may have transformed the U.S. Phillips curve by making inflation a function of global, rather than domestic, economic activity. This paper tests this view by estimating a structural model for the U.S., which incorporates a role of global output on the domestic demand and supply relations and on the formation of expectations. Expectations are modeled as near-rational and economic agents are allowed to learn about the economy's coefficients over time. The estimation reveals small and negative coefficients for the sensitivity of inflation to global output; moreover, the fit of the model improves when global output is excluded from the Phillips curve. Therefore, the evidence does not support altering the traditional closed-economy Phillips curve to include global output. The data suggest, instead, that global output may play an indirect role through the determination of domestic output. But the overall impact of global economic conditions on U.S. inflation remains negligible.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.economics.uci.edu/files/economics/docs/workingpapers/2008-09/milani-20.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 080920.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:080920

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Irvine, CA 92697-3125
Phone: (949) 824-5788
Web page: http://www.economics.uci.edu/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Globalization; Global output; Inflation dynamics; New Keynesian Phillips curve; Global slack hypothesis; Constant-gain learning;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fabio Milani, 2006. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
  2. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: The Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 547-579 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 0492, European Central Bank.
  4. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2008. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 13736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gamber, Edward N & Hung, Juann H, 2001. "Has the Rise in Globalization Reduced U.S. Inflation in the 1990s?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 58-73, January.
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Global slack and domestic inflation rates: a structural investigation for G-7 countries," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 33, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  8. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Adaptive Learning in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 5627, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust & J. David L�pez-Salido, 2010. "International Competition and Inflation: A New Keynesian Perspective," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 247-80, October.
  10. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Working Papers 11641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Marc Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 93-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Learning to Forecast and Cyclical Behavior of Output and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 297, Society for Computational Economics.
  14. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Fabio Milani, 2007. "Learning and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 070802, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  16. Preston, Bruce, 2008. "Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3661-3681, November.
  17. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2003. "Designing targeting rules for international monetary policy cooperation," Working Paper Series 0279, European Central Bank.
  18. D'Agostino, Antonello & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "Does global liquidity help to forecast US inflation?," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
  19. Forbes, Kristin J. & Chinn, Menzie David, 2003. "A Decomposition Of Global Linkages In Financial Markets Over Time," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4391b5w7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  20. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2008. "Implementing International Monetary Cooperation Through Inflation Targeting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 45-59, April.
  21. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
  22. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
  23. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 426, Boston College Department of Economics.
  24. Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2007. "Openness and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  25. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
  26. Fabio Milani, 2008. "Learning about the Interdependence between the Macroeconomy and the Stock Market," Working Papers 070819, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  27. Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, 1998. "Globalization and U.S. inflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 21-33.
  28. Assaf Razin & Alon Binyamini, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy: Outcome of Globalization?," NBER Working Papers 13280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  30. Jane Ihrig & Steven B. Kamin & Deborah Lindner & Jaime Marquez, 2007. "Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis," International Finance Discussion Papers 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?," Working Papers 091001, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:irv:wpaper:080920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jennifer dos Santos).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.