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Has globalisation changed the Phillips curve? Firm-level evidence on the effect of activity on prices

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Author Info
Eugenio Gaiotti () (Bank of Italy, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Department)

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Abstract

The flattening of the Phillips curve observed in the industrial countries has been attributed to globalisation, while the traditional explanation centres on monetary policy credibility. The empirical literature is not conclusive, since macroeconomic data are affected by substantial identification problems. This paper argues that recourse to micro data is needed to identify structural changes in the slope of the Phillips curve. Taking advantage of a unique dataset including about 2,000 Italian firms, the paper tests whether a change in the link between capacity utilisation and prices is confirmed at company level, after controlling for inflation expectations, and whether it is concentrated among those firms that are more exposed to globalisation on either the product or the labour market. The answer is negative in all cases. The results do not support the view that the flattening of the Phillips curve is due to globalisation.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 676.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_676_08

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Related research
Keywords: Phillips curve; globalisation; inflation; monetary policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  7. Leonardo Gambacorta & Carlotta Rossi, 2007. "Modelling bank lending in the euro area: A non-linear approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 650, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Filippo di Mauro & Robert Anderton & Ekkehard Ernst & Laurent Maurin & Sonia Pokutova & Wim Melyn & Axel Jochem & N. M. Pakinezou & Javier Torres & Remy Lecat & Mark Cassidy & Roberto Tedeschi & Erik , 2005. "Competitiveness and the export performance of the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 30, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Matteo Bugamelli, 2007. "Export prices, product quality and firms' characteristic: An analisys on a sample of Italian firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 634, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Claudia Biancotti & Giovanni D'Alessio, 2007. "Inequality and Happiness," Working Papers 75, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Andrea Brandolini, 2008. "On applying synthetic indices of multidimensional well-being: health and income inequalities in selected EU countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 668, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Romer, David, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
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