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Commentary: Has Globalization Changed the Phillips Curve? Firm-Level Evidence on the Effect of Activity on Prices

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  • Eugenio Gaiotti

    (Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The flattening of the Phillips curve observed in the industrial countries has been attributed to globalization, in contrast with the traditional explanation centered on monetary policy credibility. The empirical literature is not conclusive. This paper argues that recourse to micro data is needed to identify whether changes in the slope of the Phillips curve are structural. Taking advantage of a unique data set including about 2,000 Italian firms, the paper tests whether a change in the link between capacity utilization and prices is confirmed at the company level and whether it is concentrated among those firms that are more exposed to foreign competition. The answer is either inconclusive or negative in all cases. The results do not lend support to the view that the flattening of the Phillips curve is due to globalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio Gaiotti, 2010. "Commentary: Has Globalization Changed the Phillips Curve? Firm-Level Evidence on the Effect of Activity on Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 51-84, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2010:q:1:a:3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106, Enero-Abr.
    3. repec:kof:anskof:13-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Ugo Panizza & Dana Vorisek, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1904, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Heiner Mikosch, 2013. "Der Zusammenhang zwischen Preisen, Kapazitätsauslastung und Wettbewerb," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 7(1), pages 91-103, March.
    6. Sohei Kaihatsu & Mitsuru Katagiri & Noriyuki Shiraki, 2017. "Phillips Curve and Price-Change Distribution under Declining Trend Inflation," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    7. Michael F. Bryan & Brent Meyer & Nicholas B. Parker, 2014. "The inflation expectations of firms: what do they look like, are they accurate, and do they matter?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2018. "Is The Phillips Curve Different In Poor Countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 17-28, January.
    9. Guido Bulligan & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area?," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    10. Auer, Raphael A. & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2013. "Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-166.
    11. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, "undated". "The age of the dragon: Chinese competition and the pricing behavior of the Italian firms," Working Papers 4, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    12. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Davide Delle Monache, 2021. "Domestic and Global Determinants of Inflation: Evidence from Expectile Regression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 982-1001, August.
    13. Armelius, Hanna & Solberger, Martin & Spånberg, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "The Evolution of the Natural Rate of Interest – Evidence from the Scandinavian Countries," Working Papers 2023:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
    14. Jordi Galí, 2010. "Commentary: Inflation Pressures and Monetary Policy in a Global Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 93-102, March.
    15. Alfonso Rosolia, 2015. "On the response of Italian wages to the unemployment rate," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 287, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Girardi, Riccardo & Paruolo, Paolo, 2013. "Wages and prices in Europe before and after the onset of the Monetary Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 643-653.
    17. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    18. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Enrico Sette, 2015. "The Age of the Dragon: The Effect of Imports from China on Firm‐Level Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(6), pages 1091-1118, September.
    19. Aquino, Juan, 2019. "The Small Open Economy New-Keynesian Phillips Curve: Specification, Structural Breaks and Robustness," Working Papers 2019-019, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Heiner Mikosch, 2012. "Sticky Prices, Competition and the Phillips Curve," KOF Working papers 11-294, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    21. Frohm, Erik, 2020. "Price-setting and economic slack: Evidence from firm-level survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    22. Heiner Mikosch, 2012. "Sticky Prices, Competition and the Phillips Curve," KOF Working papers 12-294, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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