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Has globalization transformed U.S. macroeconomic dynamics?

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  • Fabio Milani

Abstract

This paper estimates a structural New Keynesian model to test whether globalization has changed the behavior of U.S. macroeconomic variables. Several key coefficients in the model--such as the slopes of the Phillips and IS curves, the sensitivities of domestic inflation and output to "global" output, and so forth--are allowed in the estimation to depend on the extent of globalization (modeled as the changing degree of openness to trade of the economy), and, therefore, they become time-varying. The empirical results indicate that globalization can explain only a small part of the reduction in the slope of the Phillips curve. The sensitivity of U.S. inflation to global measures of output may have increased over the sample, but it remains very small. The changes in the IS curve caused by globalization are similarly modest. Globalization does not seem to have led to an attenuation in the effects of monetary policy shocks. The nested closed economy specification still appears to provide a substantially better fit of U.S. data than various open economy specifications with time-varying degrees of openness. Some time variation in the model coefficients over the postwar sample exists, particularly in the volatilities of the shocks, but it is unlikely to be related to globalization.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 32.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:32

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Keywords: Globalization ; Macroeconomics - Econometric models ; Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy ; Banks and banking; Central ; Phillips curve;

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  1. Milani, Fabio, 2011. "The impact of foreign stock markets on macroeconomic dynamics in open economies: A structural estimation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 111-129, February.
  2. Marc Giannoni & Jean Boivin, 2008. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," 2008 Meeting Papers 1067, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Globalization and Inflation Dynamics: the Impact of Increased Competition," NBER Working Papers 13556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Help to Forecast U.S. Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 479-489, 03.
  7. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
  8. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Global slack and domestic inflation rates: A structural investigation for G-7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 968-981, December.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Working Papers 11641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Fabio Milani, 2009. "The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation," Working Papers 080920, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  12. Feenstra, Robert C & Hanson, Gordon H, 1996. "Globalization, Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 240-45, May.
  13. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Assaf Razin & Alon Binyamini, 2007. "Flattened Inflation-Output Tradeoff and Enhanced Anti-Inflation Policy: Outcome of Globalization?," NBER Working Papers 13280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2007. "Openness and inflation," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  16. Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, 1998. "Globalization and U.S. inflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 21-33.
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Cited by:
  1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Tracking U.S. Inflation Expectations with Domestic and Global Indicators," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0031, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  2. Stefan Reitz & Ulf. D. Slopek, 2012. "Fixing the Phillips Curve: The Case of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the US," Kiel Working Papers 1795, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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