We construct a measure of global liquidity using the growth rates of broad money for the G7 economies. Global liquidity produces forecasts of US inflation that are significantly more accurate than the forecasts based on US money growth, Phillips curve, autoregressive and moving average models. The marginal predictive power of global liquidity is strong at three years horizons. Results are robust to alternative measures of inflation.
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
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Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, .
"Monetary Policy in Real Time,"
Working Papers
284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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